Page 33 - bneMag April 2022 Russia living with sanctions

bne April 2022 Southeast Europe I 33
Balkan flashpoints after Russia's invasion of Ukraine
bne IntelliNews
Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, the EU stepped up its policing presence in Bosnia & Herzegovina as the deteriorating international security situation raised fears that the Western Balkans were
at risk of destabilisation. Deep-seated ethnic conflicts and a small but vocal pro-Russian far-right movement make the Western Balkans, on top of a threat to living standards from fast-rising inflation, particularly vulnerable to Russian influence.
This goes beyond the two most dangerous situations in the region: the secessionist efforts by Bosnian Serb politicians and the tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, whose independence is not recognised by Belgrade. The region has long been the subject of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West – with China also an important player. The West has been largely in the ascendancy recently as
all the countries want to join the EU, and most are either Nato members or aspiring members. Still, Russia retains significant influence in the region, especially in Serbia and Bosnia’s Republika Srpska.
Even before the current crisis, the decision by MPs in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to withdraw the entity from
the Bosnian army and other state-
level institutions was a worrying step towards the breakup of the country and a potential new conflict. The security situation in northern Kosovo, which
is mainly populated by ethnic Serbs, meanwhile, deteriorated to the worst level in a decade in September amid a dispute over car number plates.
Moscow’s view of the region as still part of its sphere of influence was bluntly reinforced by the Russian ambassador to Bosnia, who warned in mid-March of Russia’s right to “respond” should
Bosnia join Nato, and warned Bosnian politicians to look at the example of Ukraine. Within Serbia, protests were already anticipated around the general and presidential elections on April 3, but the potential for unrest has risen sharply as the government is torn between its quest for EU accession and historic
ties with Russia. Far-right groups have already staged protests in support of the Russian invasion in both Serbia and Montenegro.
The Balkans will be a “battlefield for ideas” as Russia steps up propaganda and “systematic lies” in the region,
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned during a visit to the Albanian capital Tirana on March 15. While
the situation is calmer in Albania
and North Macedonia, both Nato members, Borrell warned that the entire region is vulnerable to Russian disinformation. “Certainly, the Russian influence in the Western Balkans is nothing new, nothing new. But Russian disinformation – which is the word that we use today to talk about propaganda – and systematic lies, it is increasing,”
Borrell said at a press conference in Tirana.
“[W]e will have to face Russian influence in the Balkans, wherever it takes place, in some countries more than in others. We are very much aware that the Balkans will be a battlefield
for ideas, a battlefield for the prospects, a battlefield for the path that the Balkan countries will follow in the future,” he added.
On a more positive note, leaders across the Western Balkans have stressed the importance of regional co-operation, as seen at an EBRD event at the end
of February.
Bosnia
Days before the Russia invasion,
Borrell warned that Bosnia, along
with Ukraine, is one of two hotspots
in Europe. Members of the Republika Srpska parliament voted at the end of 2021 to quit the Bosnian army and other state-level institutions, which was seen by the international community as a step towards the breakup of the country.
EUFOR is boosting its presence in Bosnia as a precautionary measure.
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