Page 46 - bneMag April 2022 Russia living with sanctions

46 I Eurasia bne April 2022
Political map of Middle East and North Africa region.
Turkey
Turkey voted to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly. The geographically sensitive position of Turkey between East and West, its long ties with both camps and especially with its economic cooperation with Moscow, have pushed Ankara to carefully balance its different interests and to avoid angering the Russians with any sort of escalation. Russia is Turkey’s main gas supplier, covering 33% of its total imports. The gas cut will represent a problem for Ankara, which will have to search for more expensive options. But at the same time, the country is aware that it must present its stance within the consensus of NATO, in which Turkey
is a member. In order to avoid playing
an influential part in the US and EU sanctions against Russia, it chose to close the Bosporus and the Dardanelles Straits to warships and said that such a move was not intended to be against Russia but rather designed to preserve the security of the Black Sea region. It is also true that Ankara is in desperate need of Western economic assistance to help the recovery of its ailing economy.
UAE
The United Arab Emirates voted to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly. The country has been pursuing a non- aligned posture in the crisis, a position explained by the country’s attempt to preserve economic bonds and diversified alliances with partners including the US, Russia, China, and India. The vote for the non-binding UN General Assembly resolution will not affect the UAE strategy of keeping its cooperation with all parties, but it is not clear whether this strategy can remain intact when economic sanctions on Russia begin to affect the entire GCC region.
Despite the UAE desire to keep its relations with Russia to at least an “acceptable” level, the US defence of the Gulf country against recent attacks by the Yemeni Houthi group (together with Russian silence on the matter) has also played a role in the UAE decision not to escalate tensions with the US and to vote against the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the General Assembly.
MENA countries’ stances vary as Russia-Ukraine war escalates
bne IntelliNews
The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine is having a disruptive impact on the MENA region. Aside from its geopolitical consequences, the war will have an economic impact on the region in various ways.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s top grain exporters. The escalation of the war will certainly affect wheat production and exports. The Russian invasion is expected to drive up global wheat prices, which will impose yet more financial burdens on an already cash-strapped Egypt, which is the world’s biggest wheat importer. This will potentially have repercussions on low- income households and social stability.
Some countries, such as Qatar, could on the other hand benefit from cuts in Russian gas supplies to Europe, increasing gas exports. However, the Qataris said they currently do not have the capacity to increase their gas production.
The consequences of the war are
very complicated and have pushed most MENA countries to refrain
from clarifying their position until
very recently, when the UN General Assembly voted on whether to condemn
www.bne.eu
the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 3. The MENA countries’ hesitant stance, especially before the UN General Assembly resolution, stems not from bets placed on either camp, but stems rather from striking a balance between, on the one hand, an expected Russian military victory (despite fierce Ukrainian resistance) and, on the other, an expected Western economic and financial victory (despite Russia’s capabilities and manoeuvres).
Regardless of the (non-binding) UN resolution, it is clear that the war
has brought strategic shifts for many MENA countries. The GCC countries,
for example, have been redefining US engagement in the area. Egypt and Israel have favoured not fully condemning the attack, keeping the door partially open for future cooperation with Russia on energy, food, military equipment trade and other projects. The same applies
for North African countries including Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. On the other hand, Syria is standing firmly with Moscow, basically on geopolitical calculations; the same calculations that prompted Russia to prevent the Syrian regime from falling in the Western-backed Arab Spring uprising.