Page 51 - bneMag April 2022 Russia living with sanctions

bne April 2022
Opinion 51
membership of the Alliance. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin immediately warned... "Ukraine's accession to Nato would cause a deep crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations that would affect all European security. Therefore, the West must also make a choice as to what kind of relationship with Russia is in its interests”. Sergei Ryabkov (head of the Foreign Ministry's department for European co-operation) let rip with both barrels... "we are in a situation where a very serious, powerful and modern machine is moving closer and closer to those areas that we simply cannot help but consider a sphere of our own serious interests”.
Europe forces Nato to compromise
The message could not have been clearer, and someone
must have been listening because despite heavy lobbying
by President George Bush, and despite Nato stating that
both countries “will” become members, some European
Nato members declined to agree a date of either country’s accession. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon made it clear that France was "opposed to the entry of Georgia and Ukraine because we think that it is not a good answer to the balance of power within Europe and between Europe and Russia.
" German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was completely in agreement and warned that Nato must respect certain "limits" in its dealings with Russia. In case anyone hadn’t got the right message, President Putin, already furious with Nato’s support for Bush’s controversial anti-missile system, made it very clear how he felt... “Georgia and Ukraine becoming part of Nato is a direct threat to Russia”.
Georgia ignores the message and taunts Russia...
and gets squashed
That didn’t work. Georgia interpreted the supportive words and her new friendship with the West and Nato as a sign that she no longer had to worry about her once-powerful Russian neighbour. Georgian President Saakashvili immediately sent troops into the now Russian-backed self-proclaimed independent Republic of South Ossetia, which sits on the Russian border and was really part of Georgia in name only (all its citizens had been offered Russian passports – sound familiar?). Russian President Medvedev reacted instantly, ordering in the Russian military, which smashed the Georgia forces, but although in the perfect position to, held back from conquering the entire country. Nato didn’t come to her aid and Georgia lost control of both South Ossetia and another separatist region, Abkhazia (also on the Russian border). Following the implementation of a peace brokered by French President Sarkozy, President Medvedev signed an order recognising the independence of the two republics (once again – sound familiar?).
The basis for Russian foreign policy: The Medvedev Doctrine
Afterwards, President Medvedev explained the five principles which guided his Russian foreign policy (later known as the Medvedev Doctrine); including that the domination of the world by any single power, even the United States, created instability and conflict; that Russia, as a matter of the highest priority, would protect the rights of its citizens, wherever
they might be, and lastly, but by no means least, “As is the case of other countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests”. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see the names Ukraine and Georgia hung up in lights.
The Ukraine Crisis of 2014: Russia annexes Crimea
The causes of the current Ukrainian crisis really originated with trade talks (association level, not full) between the EU and Ukraine in November 2013. Those talks foundered when Russia intervened and said it was unacceptable for Russia to be excluded but suggested that of course a deal which involved the EU... and the IMF and Russia, was a different matter. Indeed, Putin then offered Ukraine exceptional terms (ignoring the inherent corruption in Ukraine which so worried the EU) and the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych turned down the EU-only deal... and the protests began, the Government overreacted, fascists elements got involved, President Yanukovich flees and a pro-western Government takes power (what America hailed as a democratic change, Putin saw as pro-America regime change – a US-backed coup). Parliament repealed the minority (Russian) language laws and the rest, as they say is history. Russia annexed the Crimea and supported separatists in Russian-speaking Donetsk and Luhansk.
It’s not difficult to interpret the two messages; “Crimea will never become a Nato base”... And “if you, the West aren’t going to back off in Ukraine, I will wreck it so it’s no use to you and you can’t use it against me. That is how important it is to me not to have you on my border.” (my italics... my words).
Some people thought that was impressive – in 2016 a certain Donald Trump tweeted “You look at what he’s doing. And so smart. When you see the riots in a country because they’re hurting the Russians, okay, ‘We’ll go and take it over.’ And he really goes step by step by step, and you have to give him a lot of credit."
Russia continues to warn the West: Ukraine and Georgia cannot join Nato
On the tenth anniversary of the Georgian war, the former Russian President (and now Prime Minister) Medvedev repeated the warning: should the West make the mistake of offering Nato membership to Georgia, it would be “absolutely irresponsible" and a "threat to peace"... it would trigger a “horrible” conflict.
And what has been the response of the West? To ignore Russia’s increasingly stringent warnings as we reached the end of last year. The West was willing to talk about anything, except what Russia wanted to talk about. For those of you who want to paint this invasion as an attempt to rebuild the Soviet Empire, I cannot find any evidence that Vladimir Putin has ever threatened to re-absorb the Baltic countries or to claim any of their territories. Maybe it’s worth remembering Putin’s own words... “Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.”
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