Page 54 - bneMag April 2022 Russia living with sanctions

54 Opinion
bne April 2022
emerged as a staunch advocate for Ukraine’s application, said that the EU should provide guarantees for Ukraine’s membership as soon as possible. “If we talk about it in 10 years, it means nothing to Ukrainians,” he said.
Lengthy accession processes
The applications from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova were dispatched after aspiring EU members from the Western Balkans had been working towards accession for many years. North Macedonia has been a candidate country for more than 16 years, having been accepted as a candidate country back in December 2005, but has yet to open accession negotiations. Montenegro, the closest state to accession, achieved candidate status over 11 years ago, in December 2010. Kosovo has so far been unable to apply as it is not recognised by five EU member states.
“This is something that has very quickly gone beyond Ukraine. Georgia and Moldova have submitted applications formally and there is also an impact on EU neighbourhood policy more generally, so there would be implications for the Western Balkans,” said Marcus How, head of analysis at Vienna-based political risk advisory VE Insight, on a panel organised by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) on March 8.
As the accession process drags on, the bloc’s credibility in
the Western Balkans has already been undermined by the repeated delays in progress, some of which are a product of internal political issues in existing members – the Bulgarian veto on North Macedonia’s accession talks being just the most obvious example.
No state has joined the EU since Croatia, nearly a decade ago in 2013. The accession process has slowed since the wave
of enlargement in the early 2000s, due to a combination of the Western Balkans countries’ relative poverty compared to even the poorest EU member states, and the preoccupation of EU members with other issues such as the migrant crisis and Brexit. With the prospect of EU accession arguably the most important incentive for reform in Central and Southeast Europe regions, there have been repeated warnings of backsliding on democracy and the fight against corruption
as the process has slowed.
North Macedonia’s Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani said
on February 28 that the European Union should urgently unblock the EU integration process with Skopje and Tirana in the light of the situation in Ukraine following the Russian invasion. Osmani underlined in a TV show on 24mk that the EU should now understand the consequences of the possible destabilisation of the region, or the danger of ‘third forces’ entering the Balkans, if the EU accession process is delayed.
Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti said on March 3 that Pristina will accelerate the application process for EU membership and that he wants the country to become a Nato member as soon as possible. Speaking to AFP, he argued
that Russian President Vladimir Putin "will use the factors
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and actors he controls also in the Western Balkans”. "As they [Russia] will target new conflicts, the Western Balkans in general and Kosovo in particular are at risk," Kurti warned.
In Bosnia, Zeljko Komsic, chairman of the three-member presidency of Bosnia, has sent an official request to EU officials to consider granting candidate status to the country. Komsic argued that more than ever Bosnia needs European unity and a clear signal that the Western Balkans is a part of Europe.
During his tour of three Western Balkan countries on March 14-16, Borrell commented that it is “high time to reinvigorate [the enlargement] process and integrate the Western Balkans in an irreversible manner into the European Union.” In Tirana, he said that Albania has met the conditions for opening accession negotiations and that he would “strongly support” an opening of talks during the current French presidency of the EU Council. However, as this requires unanimous support from EU members, he was unable to commit to a date.
New imperatives in a changed world
The complex and lengthy process of entering the EU means that a political gesture of welcoming Ukraine’s application to join the bloc doesn’t amount to much more than a pledge that the county can start working towards joining at some indefinite point in the future.
However, as Belan argues, “now is not the right historic time for a symbolic gesture”. “The outcomes of the Russia invasion of Ukraine will determine the future of the entire global liberal- democratic order; it is imperative that the EU takes a firm stand on where Ukraine MUST belong: among the community of democracies or a victim of a dangerous authoritarian regime
at the very border of the EU. My sincere hope is that the EU would rather welcome a wounded Ukraine as a member (even if imperfect in many ways) and help it reform while it is under the EU embrace and protection, than not,” Belan said.
Belan argues that the world has changed dramatically since the EU integration process was designed and the Western Balkan countries started the accession processes. There is now a war on the border of the EU (Ukraine borders EU members Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia), and there are fears fighting could spread to other parts of the EU’s southeast neighbourhood.
“With the Russian invasion in Ukraine and a very aggressive China, the future of the entire liberal-democratic world order is at stake. If Ukraine falls under the Russian occupation, there is a high risk that Moldova, Georgia and others in the vicinity will fall too. It is clear by now that Russia will not stop with Ukraine,” said Belan.
“A lengthy accession process will jeopardise the entire EU promise for a peaceful and prosperous neighbourhood to the east or southeast. Where the EU hesitates, the authoritarians firmly step in and exploit that hesitation to shift the societies' hearts and minds as well as the convictions of their leaders