Page 3 - Small Stans Outlook 2024

Executive Summary
A third year beckons in which, with Russia distracted by its war in Ukraine, the other major powers will compete to build up influence and economic opportunities in Central Asia. The Kremlin, meanwhile, will engage in efforts to hold back the geopolitical tide of change, seeking to persuade the Stans, both large and small, that a future in close alliance with Russia is in their best interests. China will continue with its slow but inexorable approach, but economically at least, it is already the number one foreign player in the region.
In domestic politics, Kyrgyzstan’s Japarov administration appears intent on aping the Putin regime in imposing authoritarian control over civil society and any rival centres of power. In Tajikistan, 2024 brings the 30th anniversary of inflexible dictator Emomali Rahmon’s presidency. Once more, there are strong rumours that his son, Rustam Emomali, could take over. In Turkmenistan, there are no signs of any meaningful reform under the Berdimuhamedov father-son autocratic axis and the stench of corruption and scandalous disrespect for basic human rights are as bad as ever.
All three of the Small Stans appear to be on course for respectable growth, as things stand, this year, though the IMF sees Turkmenistan only achieving around 2%. A lurking danger is an intensification of the fall-off in remittances, given various external problems around the world. Tajikistan is most exposed, though Kyrgyzstan too could also take a big blow in this area.
Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan in particular appears to be making big profits in the shadows from serving as a third country that, via re-exports, ensures Russia’s sanctioned economy is kept supplied. Despite pressure from the West, Bishkek will be loath to crack down on such economic activity. Turkmenistan, in particular, is suffering from a global downturn in cotton prices, though it has big hopes that this year will see it make strides with its ambition to greatly expand its piped gas exports to China.
All three countries are hoping to share in increasing spoils generated by new expanded East-West trade corridors made necessary by the many traders intent on avoiding routes through Russia.
In terms of the climate crisis, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are attempting to secure their energy provision with expanded hydropower, while Turkmenistan has signed up to the Global Methane Pledge. As a huge “super-emitter” of methane, it has promised to join the international crackdown on emissions of the gas, although there are fears that sufficient action will not follow words from the remote nation.
Finally, watch for developments as Central Asia shows increasing acknowledgement that a water crisis is staring it in the face. Without drastic action, the region could be facing dire shortfalls of water by the end of this decade, if not sooner.
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