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3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
The EBRD has downgraded Ukraine's economic downturn in 2022 and improved its outlook for 2023. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine's economic decline due to the war to 30%, while at the end of March, the forecast was minus 20%. At the same time, the EBRD forecasts a 20% recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 compared to the previous forecast of 23%. However, the real GDP growth rate will depend on how long the war in Ukraine will last, the terms of the peace agreement, the scale of reconstruction, and the number of refugees returning home, the bank added. At the same time, by the end of 2023, Ukraine's GDP will be 12.5% lower than before the war, the bank predicts. All forecasts may be revised downwards in the event of an increase in hostilities or restrictions on exports of gas or other raw materials from Russia, warns the EBRD.
Unblocking seaports will allow Ukraine to reduce the decline in the GDP.
Ukraine's GDP will fall by 30% in 2022, but unblocking seaports would reduce the economic downturn to 22-25%, according to Dragon Capital Chief Economist Olena Belan. According to her, "A 50% GDP decline at the end of the year is a very pessimistic estimate. We can talk about a 30% drop if military action subsides. And if the ports open, we can expect a GDP decline of 22-25%.” At the same time, Alexander Parashchiy, Head of Concorde Capital's Analytical Department, estimates the country's economic downturn in 2022 at 35-40%. "Even if the war ends today, we will be able to restore a maximum of 80% of what was before February. So, on average, during the year we will have a GDP decline closer to 35-45%," he said.
Ukraine is losing $170M every day due to blocked seaports. The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, and the President of the European
16 UKRAINE Country Report XXXX 2018 www.intellinews.com