Page 37 - BNE_magazine_06_2020 Growers

bne June 2020 Cover story I 37
Q1 performance, full year forecasts
Q1 GDP EBRD 2020 IMF 2020 World Bank 2020 growth y/y forecasts (May) forecasts (April) forecasts (April)
Albania -9 -5 -1.4
Armenia 3.8 -3.5 -1.5 1.7
Construction was an important contributor to the Q1 growth, with the construction works volume index climbing by 32.6% y/y in Q1 and by nearly 30% y/y in March alone, the statistics office INS announced.
The sector is likely to have contributed 0.7 pp to the 2.4% y/y GDP growth in the quarter, based on the sector’s share in total GDP and a growth of about 20% of the value-added generated this quarter.
Although the residential segment
might be negatively affected by lower consumer confidence, other drivers could underpin positive developments in the coming quarters, writes bne IntelliNews’ correspondent in Bucharest.
First, the government has promised to launch major infrastructure projects, and invest 6% of GDP in such projects over two years. Secondly, the logistic and industrial segments will need extra capacity to accommodate a more substantial role played by Romania as a logistics and manufacturing hub.
Bulgaria achieved a similar level of growth, despite imposing a strict lockdown in mid-March. This hit the country’s retail and services sector, which accounts for around 25% of GDP, as well as the transport sector. Bulgaria is also bracing for the impact on tourism, which accounts for around 10% of GDP.
On the other hand, the economies of the Western Balkans – which haven’t yet reported Q1 GDP data – have been hit by a four-pronged attack of the lockdown’s impact on services, the disruption of global supply chains, a slump in tourism and lower remittances. Similarly, Croatia’s economy inched up by 0.4% y/y in Q1 – down from 2.5% y/y in the previous quarter – and is heading for the deepest contraction across Central and Southeast Europe, along with Montenegro, as the pandemic takes
its toll on tourism.
Contributions from Iulian Ernst in Bucharest, Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw, Denitsa Koseva in Sofia, Clare Nuttall in Glasgow, Kanat Shaku in Almaty.
Azerbaijan
1.1 -3
-2.2 -0.2
Belarus -1.3 -5 -6 -4
Bosnia -4.5 -5 -1.9
Bulgaria 2.4 -5 -4 -3.7
Croatia 0.4 -7 -9 -6.2
Czechia 2.2 -6.5
Estonia -0.7 -6 -7.5
Georgia 1.5 -5.5 -4 0.1
Hungary 2 -3.5 -3.1
Iran -6 -8.2
Kazakhstan 2.7 -3 -2.5 -0.8
Kosovo -5 -5 -1.6
Kyrgyzstan -4 -4 0.4
Latvia -1.5 -7 -8.6
Lithuania 2.4 -7 -8.1
Moldova -4 -3 -0.1
Mongolia -1 -1
Montenegro -8 -9 -1.3
North Macedonia -3.5 -4 -0.4
Poland 2 -3.5 -4.6 0.4
Romania 2.4 -4 -5 0.3
Russia 1.6 -4.5 -5.5 -0.1
Serbia 5 -3.5 -3 -0.5
Slovakia -3.9 -6 -6.2
Slovenia -5.5 -8
Tajikistan -1 1 1
Turkey 4.5 -3.5 -5 0.5
Turkmenistan 1 1.8
Ukraine -1.5 -4.5 -7.7 -3.5
Uzbekistan 4.1 1.5 1.8 1.6
Source: bne IntelliNews
www.bne.eu