Page 41 - BNE_magazine_06_2020 Growers

bne June 2020
a pent-up demand to show in retail
sales by May, when restrictions are eased, but that will depend on the economic fallout of the crisis.
Latvia
Similarly, Latvian retail sales fell a calendar-adjusted 1.8% y/y in March after expanding 5% y/y the preceding month, data from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) showed on April 29.
Broken down by category and in calendar-adjusted terms, sales of non- food products declined 8.3% y/y in March, compared with an expansion of 8.2% y/y in February. That is clearly an effect of the lockdown that affected non- essential retail.
In contrast, demand for food shot up, with turnover expanding 7.1% y/y in March following a gain of 3% y/y the preceding month.
In the non-food sector, eight out of
ten segments recorded y/y turnover declines in March. Sales of clothing, footwear and leather goods predictably collapsed 45.6% in annual terms in the third month. The only two non-food segments that recorded growth were pharmaceutical and medical goods, where turnover increased 26.8% y/y in March, and sales of electrical household appliances in specialised stores with an expansion of 15.5% y/y.
Lithuania
Lithuanian retail sales also contracted 5.7% y/y in March in calendar-adjusted constant prices, Statistics Lithuania said on April 28. Sales thus recorded their first y/y fall since 2015 in what was an expected development after the Lithuanian government instituted a lockdown on the country’s people and businesses.
Of the main retail categories, sales of food, alcohol and tobacco gained 5.5% y/y in March after growing 3.5% y/y the preceding month – an effect of the run on the stores caused by the lockdown.
But sales of non-food items fell 14.3% y/y in March after shooting up 12.9% y/y in February. The figure includes
a crash of 52.9% y/y in sales of textiles, clothing and footwear and a fall of 24.2% y/y in sales of audio-video equipment, domestic appliances and furniture.
On the other hand, panicked consumers continued to stock up in other countries, leading to a rise in sales.
Estonia
Estonia also reported retail sales growth in March, albeit easing to 4% y/y in constant prices compared to 7% y/y
in February. The expansion runs counter to expectations, which predicted a contraction because of the lockdown the authorities imposed on the 1.1mn-strong economy because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which especially hit retail.
Still, the breakdown of the data did show an impact of the pandemic. Turnover in pharmacies and stores selling cosmetics jumped 30% y/y,
the statistics office said. Meanwhile, sales in the textiles, clothing and footwear segment crashed 43% y/y,
a direct effect of malls closing down to foster social distancing that curbs the spread of the virus.
SOUTHEAST EUROPE
In Southeast Europe, several states also reported growth in sales driven by food purchases. Incomes in Southeast Europe (with the exception of Slovenia) are typically lower than in Central Europe, so food and other essentials make up
a larger share of the consumer basket.
Romania
Romania's retail sales volume index increased by 9.4% y/y in Q1, according to statistics office INS. The annual growth rate was the strongest since 4Q17 and this was due to the food sales that surged in March as households built up stocks amid the panic prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.
Central Europe I 41 March food sales marked an annual
growth rate (+17.4%) not seen since the VAT rate was cut in March 2015, pushing down prices and allowing households to buy more with the same budget. Food sales were up by 14.6%, as households rushed to build up reserves, fearing imminent food shortages at the end of the March after the lockdown came into force. Compared to the same month last year, sales of food items in March surged by 17.4%.
In the same month, sales of non-food goods dropped by 1.6% compared to March 2019, though over the entire Q1, non-food sales still posted a healthy 7.5% annual growth rate.
The robust growth in Q1 is, however, expected to reverse in the coming quarters (particularly regarding the sales of durable consumer goods), as the European Commission forecast a 6.2% contraction in private consumption over the entire year in its 2020 Spring Forecast.
Serbia
Serbia's retail trade turnover expanded by a real 4.4% y/y (4.6% y/y at current prices) in March, data from the country's statistics office indicated. This was, however, a slowdown following the 13.3% y/y increase in the previous month. It was backed by sales of food products.
In March, the only annual increase was registered in sales of food products that went up by a real 14.9% y/y and by 16.4% y/y at current prices. Trade in non- food products went down by a real 1% and by 0.8% at current prices, while sales motor fuel went down by a real 9.7% y/y and by 11.8% y/y at current prices.
In other countries in the region, the lockdowns resulted in an overall decline in retail sales in March.
Turkey
Turkey suffered a recession-ailed 2019 in the wake of its 2018 currency crisis but its economy, credit-fuelled by the Erdogan administration, was making
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