Page 78 - BNE_magazine_06_2020 Growers

78 I New Europe in Numbers bne June 2020
Russia industrial production vs PMI index
Russia’s services PMI crashes to 18-year record low
Romania: FDI inflows [EUR mn, mnthly and 12M]
As expected, Russia’s services IHS Markit Russia Services Purchasing Index (PMI) crashed to its lowest level on record in April and was far worse than the manufacturing index reported at the start of the month, dragging the composite index result down with it to a new all-time low.
The seasonally adjusted services PMI fell to a stunning 12.2 in April, down substantially from 37.1 in March, and signalled the steepest contraction in business activity since data collection for the series began in 2001.
Romania’s FDI turns negative in Q1
Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Romania turned negative in the first quarter of the year, particularly in February-March, as multinationals halted their equity investments and asked their local subsidiaries to pay back their loans, according to the balance of payment data published by the central bank.
On the upside, the current account (CA) deficit, despite a significant 22% y/y increase, shows signs of stabilisation from a broader perspective and it is expected to narrow in the coming years.
The rolling 12-month CA gap has remained at around €10bn-10.5bn (under 5% of GDP) since last May.
Poland’s PMI rises but remains deep in coronavirus trough
Poland’s manufacturing PMI improved 8.7 points to 40.6 in May, the second-lowest point since January 2009, IHS Markit said on June 1.
The improvement points to some easing of distress in Poland’s manufacturing sector after the index collapsed to an all-time low of 31.9 in March in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that began sweeping Poland in March.
“The latest figure signalled a slower contraction midway through the second quarter, but still the second-sharpest monthly deterioration in business conditions since January 2009 [and] the fifth-lowest on record since the survey began in June 1998,” IHS Markit said in a comment.
“Sobering” PMI score for Turkish manufacturing in April
The headline purchasing managers’ index (PMI) score for Turkish manu- facturing in April marks the sector’s steepest slowdown since the global financial crisis.
Commenting on the survey data released on April 4, Andrew Harker, eco- nomics director at IHS Markit, said: “The April PMI data provide a sobering insight into the dreadful impact the COVID-19 [coronavirus] pandemic and associated lockdown measures had on the Turkish manufacturing sector during the month, with moderations in output and new orders worse even than those seen at the height of the global financial crisis. Firms were unable to maintain hiring in the face of sharply falling workloads, and can only hope that conditions begin to ease in the coming months.”
Poland Industrial Production (y/y) vs. PMI manufacturing
Turkey: Manufacturing PMI
www.bne.eu