Page 13 - UKRRptFeb23

2.6 Politics - misc
The Office of the President is convinced the war will end in 2023. According to a statement from the adviser to the Office of President, Mykhailo Podolyak, a delay in victory is an unwanted scenario for Ukraine. Russia, on the contrary, wants to suspend the war and significantly reduce the intensity of hostilities. According to Podolyak, “this is why the Russian Federation used the pseudo-initiative of the Christmas ‘ceasefire’. It attempted to fix positions to regroup and prepare for a new offensive.” In addition, Podolyak noted that if the war drags on, people will tire, because they want to understand what will happen tomorrow, where they will live, whether they will be shelled again, and whether their children will go to school. If people do not know what the future holds, demoralization and the desire to leave the country will grow. Podolyak is convinced that the war for Ukraine should end with the borders as they were in 1991.
Ukrainian intelligence named the decisive point in the war.The spring and early summer of 2023 will be pivotal in the Russian war against Ukraine. If Russia’s big offensive, which is planned during this time, fails, it will be the downfall of Russia and Putin, said Ukraine's deputy military intelligence chief Vadym Skibitsky. After this period, it will be possible to start talking about the war's end. It is now possible to see where this war is heading: the Russian military leadership has changed, the first mobilisation stage has ended, and the Russian army is regrouping. According to Skibitsky, the Russian military’s main activity will unfold in the directions of Donetsk and Luhansk following heavy battles in these regions. However, a new attack by the Russians on Kyiv from Belarus is unlikely, as well as active hostilities in the south of Ukraine, where the Russians are more concerned about the defence of occupied Crimea.
Germany decides to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Berlin will also authorize the supply of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv by other countries, Der Spiegel reported on Jan. 24, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
A high-ranking Ukrainian source told ABC that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after Germany's decision, expect to receive 100 Leopard 2 tanks from 12 countries. In addition to Germany itself, the Netherlands (18), Poland (14), Norway (8) and Finland promised to transfer part of their "leopards" to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A Ukrainian source of ABC claims that Spain and Denmark (both have Leopard 2) can supply tanks to Ukraine. Another 14 of its own Challenger tanks will be delivered to Ukraine by the UK - this was announced last week.
France will send its first tanks to Ukraine in early February, Britain and Germany will follow suit in March. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced the pending delivery but did not specify how many tanks his country plans to provide to Ukraine for security reasons. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expects the first Leopard 2s to be delivered to Ukraine in late March or early April. He added that by the end of January, the Ukrainian military will begin training on the Marder BMP and, soon after, on the Leopard 2 tanks. In turn, UK Deputy Defense Secretary Alex Chalk said that his government expects the Challenger 2 tanks to enter the battlefield by the end of March. And on January 30, British instructors plan to begin training
13 UKRAINE Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com