Page 37 - UKRRptFeb23

countries,” Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London said in a note.
“Moreover, at a time when the US and its allies, are focusing on helping Ukraine win the war against Russia an SDR reallocation and collateralised debt solution could provide a huge step up in Ukraine’s looming effort at reconstruction and recovery. Through no fault of its own, Ukraine will emerge from the conflict with an unsustainable debt burden - likely over 100% of GDP. SDR reallocation can be used to facilitate a much more generous treatment of Ukrainian private sector debt, which could allow much earlier market access for the government and, with this, help lower borrowing costs at a critical time in the recovery process. This will also enable the private sector to share the burden with the public sector in Ukraine’s likely substantial reconstruction needs - potentially approaching $1 trillion.”
7.0 FX
Ukraine FX
Jan 2022
Feb 2022
Mar 2022
Apr 2022
May 2022
Jun 2022
Jul 2022
Aug 2022
Sept 2022
Oct 2022
Nov 2022
Dec 2022
Jan 2023
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
31.92
33.72
32.67
32.04
31.40
31.20
30.41
37.36
35.26
36.90
37.69
39.06
39.60
Currency (units per USD) (average)
28.42
30.07
29.50
29.63
29.69
29.54
31.52
36.92
36.71
36.21
36.85
36.86
36.76
source: NBU
The expectations of bankers and financial analysts regarding the hryvnia exchange rate and inflation have improved.According to the National Bank of Ukraine, bankers forecast the hryvnia exchange rate over the next 12 months at UAH 42.70/$1. In October, they expected an exchange rate to be slightly higher at UAH 43.23/$1. At the same time, financial analysts predict a rate of UAH 41.11/$1 compared to UAH 42.30/$1 forecasted in November of 2022. Bankers upgraded expectations for consumer price growth over the next 12 months to 22.9% from 23.7% in October. At the same time, financial analysts forecasted inflation at 18.1%, compared to the 20.2% expected in November
Remittances to Ukraine have stayed roughly steady at around €10bn a year during the war.
37 UKRAINE Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com