Page 5 - UKRRptFeb23

1.0 Executive summary
As this month’s report goes to press Berlin has given the go ahead to send modern main battle tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine that could change the course of the war.
As of the end of January a total of 174 have been promised which is more than a brigade of tanks. Of these there are firm commitments of 77 of which the first 28 are due to arrive in February and another 28 will arrive sometime in March.
The tanks represent a major change in policy where the West will go from giving Ukraine defensive weapons to make sure it doesn’t lose the war to Russia, to giving it offensive weapons so that it can win the war.
As bne IntelliNews has reported, the change in heart is partly due to the fact that following Russia’s partial mobilisation that started on September 21 the front line has stabilised and Russia was making incremental gains around the epicentre of the conflict in Bakhmut in Donbas.
Tanks will likely break the deadlock. It also appears that fractures within the German government – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doesn’t want to risk an escalation, but German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is fully behind Ukraine – also helped Ukraine’s cause. Plus the Poles seemed to have outmanoeuvred Germany after Warsaw threatened to unilaterally send some its circa 250 tanks and present that to Berlin as a fait accompli. As Scholz had little response to that move, he persuaded the US to also commit to sending at least 31 of its Abrams MBTs.
But it will take time to transfer the tanks to Ukraine and Russia is also clearly getting ready for a second mass mobilisation in the spring where some 500,000 new recruits are expected to be conscripted as a counter. The war could become a lot bigger and bloodier this summer as a result.
In the meantime Ukraine’s economy continues to be pounded by shell and missile fire. Estimates for the drop in the economy in 2022 have been raised from 30% to 35%, caused by the drop in exports of everything from wheat to steel. Ukraine’s infrastructure has been smashed after a Russian campaign to make life a living hell for the population.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have created issues with food storage. Ukraine can currently export only about 5 to 6mn tonnes of grain per month, down from nearly 8mn tonnes before the full-scale invasion.
Beyond food exports, Ukraine has also historically been a major exporter of metals and raw materials. However, nearly all of Ukraine’s large factories producing steel and other key metals are located in the eastern part of the country and were severely damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks. In particular, Russians destroyed two large metallurgical enterprises located in Mariupol: the Azovstal and Ilyich iron and steel plants, which are now beyond repair, the owners told bne IntelliNews.
Despite all of this damage to the Ukrainian economy, the war has prompted Ukrainians to quickly adjust and restructure parts of the economy, as
5 UKRAINE Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com