Page 42 - bne magazine November 2021_20211104 uzbekistan risding

42 I Special focus bne November 2021
ing to do the same with Germany. It is worth noting that Angela Markel has been very bullish that further sanctions would result from any Russian efforts to “weaponise” the pipeline.
Thus an essentially emotional campaign against Nord Stream 2 limits Europe's energy options and keeps prices high, in a last-ditch bid to punish Gazprom and the Kremlin (and, implicitly, Germany). Quite who is weaponising gas here?
Thirdly, the easy assumption that when- ever Russia is involved “hybrid war” and “malign influence” come in its wake, while understandable, always risks spiralling into a vicious circle. Touchy, acutely aware of its relative weak- nesses and forever seeing subtle plots
in Western blunders, the Kremlin tends to respond badly to overheated political rhetoric. One of the great virtues of Joe Biden's handling of Putin at the Geneva summit was to keep the tough talking to the private session, while treating Russia with respect in public. This may sound trivial, but policies are decided
by people, and the ageing lords of the Kremlin take language seriously.
Meanwhile, the risk is that at home, such rhetoric locks Western govern- ments into futile and counter-productive gestures. Already I am aware of at least
a couple of European foreign ministries brainstorming how to “punish Moscow for creating the gas crisis” just in case their political masters demand it. I asked one of those involved if the team actually believed Russia was to blame. Of course not, came the reply, but you know how politicians are...
The wicked problem
None of this is to exonerate Moscow
for all the destructive and antagonistic things it does do, from poisonings in Britain to trolling in the infosphere. Indeed, to a considerable extent, it is simply reaping the fruits of years of such activities, such that too many, too easily believe too much that goes wrong is somehow down to Russia's unseen and unfriendly hand.
However, there are many – analysts, experts, policymakers – who do know better or should know better. In many ways, the gas crisis is a fitting metaphor for the challenges of the modern world: complex, global, hard to fix and likely
to have long and unpredictable impacts. The policies of particular countries may exacerbate it a little here, alleviate a little there. Certainly were Germany to approve Nord Stream 2 and other countries then buy gas from Russia – especially on the longer-term contracts it craves – that would help. It wouldn’t magically make the underlying issues disappear, though.
The answer to problems of wicked complexity is not to pretend they are simple, not to look for a “usual suspect” to blame. It is to look for solutions of appropriate complexity. At present, for the West, this looks like a fail.
Mark Galeotti is director of the consultan- cy Mayak Intelligence and also an honor- ary professor at UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies.
Ukraine claims Gazprom gas deal with Hungary
is “use of gas as a weapon”, demands sanctions
Ben Aris in Berlin
Ukraine’s national gas company Naftogaz and the pipeline operator Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) claimed on October 1 that a recent deal by Russia’s Gazprom to supply Hungary and reduce gas supplies to Ukraine was the “use of gas as a weapon”, and have demanded the US and EU impose sanctions as promised.
“Whether Germany acknowledges it or not, Russia has aimed its energy weapon at all of the EU. The threats to punish Russia at some future date no longer suffice. The very credibility of the Western deterrents is on the line and the time to respond is now,” Ukraine’s national gas transport
www.bne.eu
company said in tweet from its corporate account the same day.
The controversial deal with Hungary will see Gazprom supply Hungary with 4.5bn cubic metres of gas per year, but
it will be delivered via the newly opened TurkStream southern pipeline route that went live in January. Previously Russia’s delivery of gas to Hungary had been sent through the Ukrainian pipeline network.
Earlier this year US President Joe Biden backed off sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which he admitted was a fait accompli, provided Russia refrained from using “gas as a weapon.”
For its part Gazprom says it has been
sticking scrupulously to the terms of its new transit deal signed at the last minute with Ukraine in December 2019 that commits the Russian gas giant to send 40 bcm via Ukraine’s Druzhba pipeline until 2024. Gazprom says it is free to deliver gas to Hungary via any route it wants.
The US and EU have yet to respond
to the Ukraine’s demands; however,
last week EU officials called for an investigation into Gazprom as gas prices soared over $1,200 per thousand cubic metres, breaking all previous records.
Gazprom may be sticking to its transit deal with Ukraine, but it has not been buying extra capacity offered by GTSOU and Europe is facing possible fuel shortages if