Page 71 - bne magazine November 2021_20211104 uzbekistan risding

bne November 2021 Eurasia I 71
is the victim now, and Georgian society has a loyal attitude towards political victims. I think some people have started to shift their opinion of him from a violator [of human rights] to being the reformer, the creator of modern Georgia. People have started to respect him more for coming back to Georgia knowing that he would suffer, rather than continuing to live abroad in luxury,” Kachkachishvili explained.
By his return, Saakashvili has also posed a severe challenge to other opposition parties in Georgia, from the UNM- breakaway European Georgia to the upstart Lelo party and the For Georgia bloc of defected GD leader Giorgi Gakharia.
“Loyalty to Saakashvili has seemingly grown, not only among UNM supporters but also among those from other parties,” said Kachkachishvili. “It has further polarized society, which poses the largest challenge yet to GD’s rule but also
makes it more difficult for other parties to survive. They have to tread carefully on the Misha issue now with so much support for him coming out, and their share of votes will likely diminish in favour of UNM,” he explained.
Saakashvili’s endgame, meanwhile, remains unclear. While his party now stands a strong chance of winning the mayoralties of most of Georgia’s largest cities (Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi and Zugdidi) and perhaps even Tbilisi itself in the second round of the local elections on October 30, it seems very unlikely at the moment that the UNM leader himself will walk free in Georgia anytime soon.
One likely possibility is that Saakashvili will be extradited to Ukraine, where he holds citizenship. Ukrainian officials have visited him in prison several times, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself has lobbied for Saakashvili’s release.
“I think GD will send Misha to Ukraine,” said Utiashvili. “Keeping him in prison for years [Saakashvili’s current sentence is six years] is unimaginable as there
is so much pressure, and the president pardoning him will not happen anytime soon. For Misha this is still not the best option [as opposed to walking free], but then he can at least say to his supporters and doubters that he did come,” Utiashvili said.
“What happens next depends entirely on the result of the second round
of elections,” said Kachkachishvili.
“If UNM can win some of the larger cities, especially Tbilisi, then the pressure from society on GD to release Saakashvili will be so strong they will either do it or allow his extradition to Ukraine. In that case, there could even be early parliamentary elections –
and if that happens, who knows what could occur.”
Russia proposes “3+3” format to unlock economic and transport communications in Caucasus
bne IntelIiNews
Russia has introduced the idea of
a “3+3” format – the three South Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia plus their
three big neighbours, namely Russia, Turkey and Iran – to focus on unlocking economic and transport communications in the South Caucasus region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed the proposed initiative with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian in Moscow on October 6.
Lavrov’s move follows major Iranian military exercises, widely seen as an expression of Tehran’s unhappiness
at Azerbaijan’s territorial ambitions assisted by Turkey and big arms buys from Israel, which have been countered by joint Turkish and Azerbaijani war games. Armenia, meanwhile, has been
loathe to move towards agreeing to any land trade corridors with Azerbaijan while disagreements over borders remain unsettled. However, as part of the Russian-brokered ceasefire that ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan last year, Yerevan and Baku agreed to explore opening up transport links that would boost trade.
There have been concerns in Tehran, meanwhile, that a land grab by Azerbaijan backed by Turkey could hinder or cut off Iran’s trade route northwards
to Armenia, Georgia, Russia and beyond.
‘Decisive role’
TASS reported Lavrov as referring at a press conference to how Russia played a decisive role in halting the Karabakh war, with a trilateral agreement leading to the deploy- ment of Russian peacekeeping troops.
Lavrov was reported as saying that the agreement “contained principles that determine the joint steps to advance the [post-war] settlement, including work
to unblock all transport communications and economic ties in the region, which will be to the benefit of not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Georgia as well”.
He added: “Iran, Russia and Turkey will also benefit from this as the closest neighbours’ of these three republics.”
According to Lavrov, the Iranian side expressed a positive attitude towards the “3+3” idea, while the same attitude was observed in Azerbaijan and Turkey.
But Russia and Georgia, which fought the 12-day Russo-Georgia War in 2008, have still not settled disputes over breakaway territories South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
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