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            bne February 2021 Companies & Markets I 25
      want to stay. Many have family commitments or frail parents. Other simply want to sit the current chaos out and believe that the stalemate will be resolved in the coming months.
But many of the smaller firms have already left and even EPAM has recently opened new offices in both Latvia and Tbilisi.
“The big companies are not going to go, as too many of their staff have commitments in Minsk like parents and families and these companies are remaining loyal to their staff that want to stay,” says Bogretsov.
But according to reports, thousands of smaller small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have already left. The surrounding countries – Lithuania, Ukraine and Poland in particular – have introduced relocation schemes, fast-track resident visas and business permits to make it easy
for Belarusian engineers and firms to move.
“Companies like EPAM offer mobility packages so that staff who want to move somewhere else can, and there is a steady stream of people going to the other markets and those numbers have increased in recent months,” says Bogretsov. “Most of the smaller firms that wanted to go have already left and they probably won’t be coming back. The rest are staying to wait and see. They believe we will win.”
It's a brain drain of epic proportions. Belarus IT professionals are already amongst the most mobile members of the population. Well paid, highly skilled and sought after, they face few hurdles finding employment elsewhere if they want.
“The packages been offered by countries like Poland and Lithuania are welcome and appreciated,” says Bogretsov.
“But you have to understand how much people are giving
up if they go. They are leaving homes and most of them have nice homes in the premium real estate sector. I think there is already a crisis in the housing market, as these homes are not easy to sell.”
Bogretsov says the first wave of departures is probably already over, but a second wave may start if the showdown is not resolved. In the medium and long term the IT professionals still in the country are looking further afield to Spain, Germany, the US and other countries. They could go literally anywhere, but moves to those countries take longer to organise.
Death of investment
Lukashenko’s neo-Soviet economy is good at working
metal and building giant dump trucks. It also has a famous sideline in the “Minsk fridge,” a low-cost but very serviceable refrigerator that can be found all over the former Soviet Union (FSU). It even has a strong agricultural sector and Lukashenko is prone to taking baskets of Belarusian potatoes as gifts
for foreign dignitaries or going on televised melon-picking exhibitions with his son in the summer.
New role
Bogretsov has thrown himself into his new political role, not without putting himself at personal risk. The authorities
While those industries turn a profit, their purpose is to keep the army of blue collar workers employed. Many of these firms
have been propped up by the Russian energy subsidy money and the country’s low wages; Russia has given Belarus an estimated $100bn in subsidies over the last decade.
IT is the only truly modern sector of the economy and Belarusian IT engineers are famous within the global business as amongst the best. IT has also been a source of investment and brings in over a billion dollars a year from exports.
“I have not drawn a single dollar [to Belarus] since August,” says Bogretsov. “I can’t recommend to clients or investors to come here. This is a reputation business. We have spent 20 years building up the reputation, or producing white label products and software. Now [the country’s reputation] is wiped out. There are days with no internet. You never know when a key person will be arrested. You can’t totally isolate a client from that.”
Bogretsov says after Lukashenko has gone the IT industry leaders will try to re-establish both the industry and its reputation, but currently he says it is like “living in a no-man's land.”
The damage being done to the industry is massive. The state statistics committee reported that the “information and telecoms” sector was growing by 9.1% in August year on year before the elections but that had fallen to 1.9% by October.
“Companies like EPAM offer mobility packages so that staff who want
to move somewhere else can, and there is a steady stream of people going to the other markets”
“But those numbers are in Belarusian rubles and they have started the printing presses now. I don't think there is any growth at all,” says Bogretsov.
Potentially even more damaging than the intermittent internet, the raids and arrests, and the climate of fear is the persecution of students that is under way. The authorities have been raiding universities and students that attend protests have been expelled. OMON troops have even entered schools to snatch children holding the red and white flags of the opposition.
“The students are being harassed more than anyone else,” says Bogretsov. “They are being forced out of the country. How
are you going to build a human capital intensive business if you don't have any students?” Neighbouring countries have also offered fast-track programmes for students that want to leave and continue their studies in other countries nearby such as Poland.
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