Page 42 - bneMag February 2021_20210202

42 I OUTLOOK 2021
bne February 2021
Another potential flashpoint could arrive with the publi- cation of the hugely unpopular ruling of the government- controlled Constitutional Tribunal, which outlawed virtually all possibilities for women to have a legal abor- tion. The ruling brought hundreds of thousands of angry protesters to the streets in October and November. If the government orders the formally independent tribunal
to publish the ruling, protests are likely to erupt again.
But the PiS-led government has maintained a steady lead in the polls and will not be tested in elections until 2023, giving it a manageable period to address politi-
cal woes rife in post-pandemic Poland. How effective
the government will be in doing that remains an open question, not least because of the internal tensions in the coalition. Unless support for the government drops dramatically, the opposition appears unlikely to mount a successful political challenge to it in a non-election year.
SOUTHEAST EUROPE / Turkey
2020 goes down as a globally exceptional year, a rare thing. Nobody could have predicted such a massive virus outbreak would strike when it did, although there were little heard voices warning that humankind’s incursions into nature were pushing up the chances of a pandemic. Among its myriad impacts, the outbreak changed expectations on the chances of a snap election in Turkey, while it must have swung plenty of votes that won Joe Biden the White House.
“I’m willing to bet that this time last year nobody (including us) was forecasting that a pandemic would rip through the world in 2020, causing the biggest fall in global GDP since World War Two,” Neil Shearing of Capital Economics wrote on December 7 in a note on “What to expect in 2021.”
“What’s more, I’m willing to bet that anybody that did forecast such an event, failed also to forecast that stock markets would end the year at a record high,” he added. The pandemic serves as a useful reminder of Keynes’ prin- ciple of fundamental uncertainty as some things are simply unknowable before they happen, according to Shearing.
So, perhaps, we should not easily buy the recovery in the “real economy” story for 2021. We are familiar with out- looks brimming with positivity at the beginning of a new year, but we should not forget that those who produce these dominant discourses are typically those that also drive global liquidity in the financial markets.
In November 2020, the music changed in the US. Biden,
Czech Republic
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
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despite the wailing and the flailing from Donald Trump, won a mandate, and the policies of his administration will be the main determinant as to what will eventuate in Turkey in 2021.
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Albania
Croatia
Montenegro
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Kosovo
North Macedonia
Bulgaria
Moldova
Romania
Serbia
Slovenia