Page 105 - RusRPTOct20

correctly predicted the CBR’s rate moves 65% of the time. By comparison, in
New Zealand (which was the first country to issue Rate forecasts in 1997),
markets were correct 90% of the time.
8.3 ​Stock market
8.3.1 ​Equity market dynamics
Russia funds reported their worst week since COVID in mid September, as other EMs suffer too​. Outflows from Russia-dedicated equity funds hit a new post-COVID high solely due to active funds reporting net withdrawals. The BNP Paribas Russia Equity Funds reported $50mn of weekly outflows as of September 18 and was by far the largest contributor to the overall net negative reading.
While Russia headline risk has risen on the Belarus revolution and Navalny poisoning stories, global investors are increasingly concerned on all EM stock markets, as GEM funds reported outflows of $637mn and country-dedicated funds of other BRIC nations showed even worse numbers with $557mn out of China funds, $223mn out of Brazil and $125mn out of India as of mid-September. Investors continue to shun EM equities, preferring to play via EM bond markets if at all.
105 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com