Page 19 - RusRPTOct20

The spread on where the ruble will go from here is wide. Orlova also sees the ruble at RUB67 as possible, but thinks it will fluctuate around RUB75 for the meantime. The strengthening of the Russian currency may begin in November, after the US elections, she believes. This will be facilitated by the general upward mood on world markets and oil prices, which, according to Orlova, will stabilize at $50 per barrel. The chances of the ruble strengthening against the euro, which is becoming more expensive against the dollar, are less likely, she adds.
The worst-case scenario for the Russian currency is Joe Biden's victory in the US elections, whose is expected to be much more of hawk on Russia than Obama, let alone US president Donald Trump.
“Geopolitical tensions have shifted so far that it has made it difficult to tell a positive story on the ruble and defend our end-year forecast of 67/$,” says Peach. “The ruble is likely to remain under pressure, particularly as the US presidential election nears due to concerns that Joe Biden may take a tougher stance on Russia and we now expect the currency to fall to 80/$ by end-2020.”
If we remove political risks, then the main determining factors of the ruble exchange rate will be the recovery in demand, the exit from the pandemic, oil prices, for the main goods of Russian exports, lists economist at BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov. Without additional risks and with an oil price of $45 per barrel, the dollar will drop below RUB70 by the end of the year, he said.
Fitch is also moderately optimistic about the exchange rate of the Russian currency predicting an average dollar rate of RUB70 in 2021 after an average of RUB70.4 in 8M20, and RUB69 in 2022.
19 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com