Page 60 - RusRPTOct20

4.5 ​Labour and income
4.5.1​ Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Unemployment ticked up 0.1pp in August to 6.4%.​ Rosstat reports that employment was down 2.0mn people y/y in August, with the unemployment numbers rising 1.5mn people. The remaining 0.4mn people left the economically active labour force entirely over the year, giving a total -0.8mn decline in the overall labour force since January 2017. Before 2Q20, declining unemployment rates had been offsetting the stagnant declining numbers of the total economically active population, which started to drop significantly in 2019, but the COVID-downturn put the structural decline in the employment rate on pause.
At the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, unemployment stood at two times the official figures​, a new analysis from FinExpertiza argues. In the second quarter, Rosstat reported that 4.47 million Russians, or 6% of the labor force, were unemployed. However, another 4.87 million Russians were out of work as well. They weren’t counted toward official figures because they either were not looking for another job or were unable to return to work immediately. This means that true unemployment stood at 9.3 million people, or 12.1% of the labor force.
Coronavirus also led the middle class to shrink considerably as lost incomes pushed members of the working class into poverty. ​Before the pandemic, the Higher School of Economics (HSE) calculated that 24% of the Russian population belonged to the middle class. During the pandemic, 6.1% of these people to become poor. As a share of Russia’s total population, the middle class is now 1.5 percentage points smaller than before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the share of poor Russians rose from 12.3% at end of 2019 to 19-20% after the COVID lockdowns.
There are other signs that the impact of the pandemic is accentuating inequality in Russia​, already one of the world's most unequal countries. An additional 1.4mn Russians have slipped into poverty - calculated by the Russian government's definition - since the start of the pandemic, the Audit Chamber watchdog pointed out in a recent report.
Covid-19 crisis has increased broad unemployment and part-time work in 2020. ​Using the methodology of the International Labour Organization (ILO), Rosstat’s latest survey of the labour force reminded that the numbers of 15 to 72-year-olds employed and unemployed have been shrinking since 2017. This year’s economic recession and coronavirus restrictions have pressed the number of persons employed to a downslide almost as deep as seen during the 2009 slump.
Unemployment increased rapidly in spring, and continued to rise slightly in summer. In July and August, slightly less than 6.5% of the Russian workforce was officially unemployed, i.e. well above the historical low of less than 4.5%
60 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com