Page 82 - RusRPTOct20

2021. If global demand for fuel recovers at the same time, then the price of oil will remain quite high, and Russia will be able to return to its pre-crisis policy.
6.1.1 ​Budget dynamics - results
The Ministry of Finance reports a RUB1.69 trillion deficit for 8mo20 and a RUB0.3 trillion deficit for August – continuing to narrow since June.
The monthly federal budget deficit is very likely past its peak.
i) Oil & gas revenues are set to improve as a result of the partial lifting of the OPEC+ limits in August, which are to result in higher crude oil extraction and export volumes, and the oil price recovery since April.
ii) Non​oil & gas revenues are to benefit from a recovery in VAT collection (the biggest income item in non​oil & gas revenues is domestic VAT): in October, with the improvement in domestic activity in 3Q20 compared with 2Q20, domestic VAT is also set to improve, since the domestic VAT for 3Q20 is uniformly paid in October​December.
iii) Most of the anti​crisis stimulus was delivered in 2Q20 (see our (Very) Technical Brief ​ #RawData; public spending timeline of the COVID​19 package, of April 30, for more details).
82 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com