Page 157 - RusRPTAug24

solvent: they have already sold everything that they could build in the next three years.”
The Bank of Russia has upgraded its outlook on growth of retail and corporate lending for 2024, keeping mortgage lending outlook intact, according to the regulator’s updated mid-term forecast.
In particular, the outlook on growth of lending for 2024 has been upgraded to 10-15% from 8-13% in the corporate segment and to 10-15% from 7-12% in the retail segment. The outlook on mortgage lending growth for this year has been maintained at 7-12%.
Meanwhile, the outlook on growth of retail lending for 2025 has been downgraded to 6-11% from 7-12%. The outlook on growth of corporate lending for 2025 remained intact at 7-12%. The regulator also downgraded the outlook on growth of mortgage lending in Russia for 2025 to 8-13% from 10-15%.
The outlook on growth of lending for 2026 has been downgraded to 7-12% from 8-13% in the retail segment and to 7-12% from 8-13% in the corporate segment. The Central Bank also left its outlook on mortgage lending growth for 2026 at 10-15%.
The Bank of Russia also projects 8-13% growth of corporate lending, 8-13% growth of retail lending and 10-15% growth of mortgage lending in 2027.
Mortgage disbursements in Russia may drop by a half in the second half of 2024 amid the end of subsidized mortgage lending for new developments, head of DOM.RF analytical center Mikhail Goldberg told reporters.
"We expect 1.3-1.4mn mortgage loans totaling about five trillion rubles ($55.8bn) will be disbursed over the year in total. In general, this will be approximately 35% lower than in 2023. However, one should understand that the second half of the year will be indeed much smaller than the second half of the prior year, and the decline will be about a half," the expert said.
According to preliminary results of the first half of 2024, more than 700,000 mortgage loans amounting to 2.8 trillion rubles ($31.8bn) were granted in Russia, Goldberg added.
The subsidized mortgage lending program for housing in new development projects at the rate of 8% that was launched in 2020 ended on July 1 of this year.
According to the results of the second quarter, Russians repaid 43.2% of all loans taken from microfinance organizations (MFOs) in the Installment segment (IL, medium-term loans for amounts within 100,000 rubles for up to six months) ahead of schedule, according to data from a study by the online lending service Moneyman. Vedomosti has a copy of the document. The early repayment rate has been growing since the fourth quarter of 2022 and has exceeded 40% for the first time since 2020.
157 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com