Page 18 - RusRPTAug24

growth forecasts for 2024 – from 1.3% to 2.2%, then to 2.9%.
Symptoms of overheating
There are many symptoms of an overheating economy. The IMF, for example, has nine indicators to determine overheating:
● Output relative to trend
● Output gap
● Unemployment and inflation levels
● External trade conditions
● Capital inflow
● Current account
● Increases in credit, property prices and share prices
● Extent to which the budget is balanced
● Real interest rates (rate minus inflation)
In Russia, the two primary indicators of overheating are inflation and labor shortages, according to the Central Bank. These two indicators are closely linked: high consumer demand pushes up prices. And that demand is fanned by uncontrolled wage increases (21.6% in March compared to the same month a year earlier). Wages are rising particularly fast in industrial regions with the biggest increases in Siberia’s Kurgan Region (+33%) that is home to the only factory in Russia manufacturing infantry combat vehicles.
18 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com