Page 182 - RusRPTAug24

volume of Russia's oil refining to fall by around 17%, a Nato official reportedly told journalists in Washington on July 9.
Ukraine must continue to target Russian oil refineries in order to weaken the aggressor’s economy. This year, Ukraine has struck at least 20 oil facilities in Russia with its drones. According to analysts, as of the end of March these strikes have reduced the production of light petroleum products by at least 1.7mn tonnes per month, worth approximately $1.5bn. As of May, drone strikes had disabled 14% of Russia's oil refining capacity and led to an increase in domestic fuel prices by 20-30%. The success of Ukraine's attacks is evidenced by the fact that the Russian government decided not to publish statistics regarding its gasoline production. The recent Novoshakhty Oil Products Plant attack destroyed 1.5mn tonnes of oil and oil products worth $540M. There are about 30 large oil refineries and another 80 mini-refineries in Russia which Ukrainian forces can strike. Of course, this will not lead to the complete collapse of the Russian economy, but it will significantly hinder its functioning. Due to sanctions, Russia has lost production capabilities that are difficult and expensive to restore. The destruction of refineries in the European portion of Russia will make it difficult to supply their army with petroleum products.
Drone attack caused fire at oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast, governor claims. Ukrainian drones attacked an oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast, causing a large fire overnight on July 13, Governor Vasily Golubev claimed. The Ukrainian military has not commented on the reports.
● Prices & demand
OPEC’s view that global demand will grow by 2.25mn barrels a day in 2024 has remained unchanged. Figures for the first quarter of 2024 published by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative, of which OPEC is a member, show demand growth under 1mn barrels a day for the 53 countries it covers.
Growth of world oil demand is forecast to average just below 1mn barrels per day in 2024 and 2025, as subpar economic growth, greater efficiencies and vehicle electrification act as headwinds, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its July report. Consequently, the estimate remained almost unchanged compared with previous report.
World oil demand growth expectations for the 2024 and 2025 are largely unchanged at 970 kb/d (compared to 960 kb/d in previous forecast) and 980 kb/d (1 mbd in previous forecast), respectively, the agency said.
World oil demand growth slowed to 710 kb/d in Q2, its lowest quarterly increase in over a year, the IEA noted, adding that the decrease is largely related to lower oil demand in China.
182 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com