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attacks by Ukrainian drones. In April-May, production was restored, but June showed that the refinery was unable to significantly increase gasoline production and meet the growing demand for fuel.
KSE estimate that, as of the first quarter of 2024, 435 vessels are part of the Russian shadow fleet. They are not owned, managed, or insured by an entity in the sanctions coalition and, thus, the price cap does not apply to them. Most importantly, these tankers do not carry oil spill (P&I) insurance from the International Group (IG). 185 vessels are transporting crude oil and 250 are transporting oil products. The vessels of the Russian shadow fleet can cover ~60% of total crude and ~45% of total products exports independent of restricted maritime services. Despite a concerted – and costly – effort to build up the shadow fleet, Russia still falls short of its ultimate objective with regard to sanctions evasion.
KSE observe a high correlation between the share of the shadow fleet in the transport of Russian oil and the spread between Russian oil prices and benchmark North Sea Brent. Thus, the shadow fleet’s expansion is a direct challenge to the effectiveness – and overall leverage – of the international energy sanctions regime, which is supposed to deprive Russia of financing for the war.
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Russia scaled up supplies of petroleum products to African countries by 3.5 times to 17.6mn metric tonnes last year, department director of the Energy Ministry Dmitry Semenov said. "Dynamics is good for supplies - we had the increase by 3.5 times to 17.6mn metric tonnes last year as regards
185 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com