Page 196 - RusRPTAug24

Miller later said that China was considering the possibility of increasing Russian gas supplies through the Power of Siberia beyond the design capacity of 38bn cubic metres and that such an agreement could be reached in the near future.
IEA's Outlook on Gas Prices
Prices at the TTF gas hub in Europe in 2024 will be 20% lower than the previous year, according to a report by the IEA on the gas market. "Forward curves as of the beginning of July 2024 suggest that TTF is set to average 20% below its 2023 levels in 2024 at around $10.5/MBtu (million British thermal units)," the report says.
Meanwhile, spot gas prices worldwide increased in the second quarter of 2024 due to tighter supply and demand indicators combined with geopolitical uncertainty. In particular, spot TTF prices in Europe increased by 15% compared to the previous quarter, more than double the average for the second quarters of 2016-2020. Lower LNG supplies (down nearly 20% y/y), unplanned outages in Norway and renewed uncertainties over Russian gas supplies have put upward pressure on prices.
"Historic volatility on TTF month-ahead prices averaged 53% in Q2 2024, remaining almost 50% above the Q2 average volatility displayed in the 2011-2021 period. This relatively high level of volatility reflects a still tight global gas balance and the market’s nervousness amid geopolitical tensions," the IEA stresses.
"Asian spot LNG prices retain their premium over European hub prices in 2024, with JKM averaging $1/MBtu above TTF. This should support higher LNG flows towards the Asian markets," the report says.
According to the IEA, Henry Hub prices in the United States are set to remain close to their 2023 levels and average $2.40/MBtu in 2024.
The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to the EU increased by 11%.
In the first half of the year, the Russian Federation increased the supply of gas for transit through the Ukrainian gas transport system to the EU and Moldova by 11% compared to the same period last year, to 7.7bn cubic meters, said the Operator GTS of Ukraine.
Russia seeks to maintain gas transit to the EU through Ukraine, but Kyiv is against it, although several EU states are interested. Russia wants to continue supplying gas to the EU through Ukraine's gas transport system after the current transit contract expires at the end of the year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Novak said. "Transit through its territory depends on Ukraine. It depends on their desire. Russia is ready to supply," Novak added.
196 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com