Page 26 - RusRPTAug24

this clause in the new treaty was simply copied from its 1961 counterpart with minimal changes.
Pyongyang will now enjoy Moscow’s military protection. Until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had tried to tread a neutral path when it came to North and South Korea—but now it has firmly taken the side of Pyongyang.
For Seoul, it represents a major diplomatic defeat: the failure of a decades-long effort to build a special relationship with Moscow, and prize apart North Korea and Russia.
South Korea’s response will likely be to cross the Kremlin’s own red lines by beginning arms shipments to Ukraine. That is entirely in keeping with the pro-Western style of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who has sought to promote his country’s role as a reliable ally of Japan and the United States, and as a full-fledged representative of the free world. Seoul will likely now conclude that it is better to talk to Moscow from a position of strength.
The treaty with North Korea will also lead to intense scrutiny from Beijing: while the war in Ukraine continues, Russia looks set to play a fundamental role in reducing North Korea’s dependence on China.
Via Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
2.5 Russia’s economy is overheating
Overheating of the Russian economy has already become commonplace. Elvira Nabiullina and German Gref openly talk about it, and only Vladimir Putin still boasts of growth rates unimaginable for a country under sanctions. Despite all efforts, the Central Bank has not yet succeeded in cooling the economy. Everyone understands that too rapid growth in wartime is something potentially dangerous, but what exactly is the threat of overheating?
What's happening
More than a year has passed since Elvira Nabiullina pointed out the first signs of overheating in the Russian economy, and a little less than a year since the Central Bank moved to raise rates. “If we try to drive faster than the car’s design and press the gas as hard as we can, sooner or later the engine will overheat and we won’t get far. We may be driving fast, but not for long,” Nabiullina described the risk of overheating at the end of 2023. Other officials also point to its signs: Minister of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov, head of Sberbank German Gref.
Overheating is always accompanied by rapid economic growth, so on the outside everything looks great. In 2023, Russian GDP grew by 3.6% - above the world average of 3.1% (the last time this happened was in 2012). But this growth was a recovery from the economy's 1.2% contraction in the shock year of 2022. But in 2024, the low base effect was no longer there - and GDP was growing even faster: in the first quarter - by 5.4%.
26 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com