Page 33 - RusRPTAug24

high school and university graduates suggested that Russia was falling into a demographic hole. The Labor Ministry predicts that, by 2030, Russia will be lacking 2.4 million workers.
However, such gloomy demographic prognoses are not news. A shrinking workforce has already prompted the government to impose its most unpopular reform of the last decade – raising the pension age in 2018. You can find more details in this article by economist Rostislav Kapelyushnikov about the future of Russia’s workforce.
The only thing that has succeeded in increasing the size of Russia’s workforce in recent years has been the war in Ukraine. In 2023, Russia saw an influx of people from occupied territories who took Russian citizenship – many of whom entered the workforce. The effect of raising the pension age is also being felt. But even these increases can’t meet the needs of Russia’s booming economy. It’s clear the problems are not down to demography alone. But what other factors are there?
Firstly, there are likely fewer labor migrants. Russia’s natural population decline was traditionally balanced by migrant labor. However, migration in 2023 was at its lowest level since pandemic-hit 2020. And this year, there could be even fewer: following the March terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, Russia imposed tighter checks on migrants entering the country, and there was aggressive anti-migrant rhetoric from several officials.
Secondly, the Russian army is recruiting tens of thousands of working-age men. While the Kremlin remains reluctant to impose another round of mobilization, the army has to compete with all other employers. At present, somewhere between 10,000 and 30,000 workers join the army every month – about 0.5 percent of the total supply. As time passes, it becomes harder to recruit more men, which means they have to be enticed by ever higher salaries, sign-on payments, and other bonuses.
33 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com