Page 38 - RusRPTAug24

The projected rapid increase in US solar panel production by Chinese-owned companies has not previously been reported. This development poses a significant challenge for President Joe Biden's climate agenda. While the Biden administration is eager for new investment that creates US jobs in clean energy, there is also a strong desire to avoid over-reliance on geopolitical rival China as the economy transitions from oil and gas to renewables.
Implications for US Manufacturing and Energy Policy
The influx of Chinese investment in US solar manufacturing underscores the competitive difficulties faced by American companies in the sector, even with federal support aimed at boosting domestic production. The situation highlights a critical tension in the Biden administration's strategy: the need to foster clean energy industries domestically while mitigating the strategic risks associated with Chinese dominance in key sectors.
As the US ramps up its renewable energy initiatives, the presence of Chinese firms in the domestic solar manufacturing market is likely to provoke further debate over trade policies, supply chain security, and the broader implications for US economic and national security interests.
2.13 EU facing looming gas crisis
The European Union aims to ban Russian fuel imports by 2027, yet nearly half of Russia's pipeline gas supplies to Europe and Moldova continue to pass through Ukraine. In 2023, this amounted to 13.7 billion cubic meters (Bcm). As the EU considers involving Azerbaijan in a future transit deal, concerns are rising about the future flow of these gas volumes with the current Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement set to expire at the end of 2024.
Future Supply Routes and LNG Needs
Rystad Energy forecasts that Russia will need to find alternative routes to transport its gas to Europe, necessitating an additional 7.2 Bcm per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace the Ukrainian transit. Austrian energy company OMV has already issued warnings of potential supply disruptions, suggesting these issues could arise sooner than expected.
Dependence on Transit Volumes
Countries most reliant on transit volumes include Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova, which imported 3.2 Bcm, 5.7 Bcm, and 2.0 Bcm, respectively, in 2023. Last year, Russian gas passing through Ukraine supplied EU nations via entry points in Slovakia and Moldova. Moldova has agreed with Ukraine to maintain the flow of Russian gas until the end of 2025, primarily to the pro-Russia separatist region of Transnistria. In 2023, Moldova imported 74% of its gas through Ukraine and, for the first time, received gas from Romania and the south via reverse flows through the Trans-Balkan pipeline.
Impact of Halting Transit Through Ukraine
Ending Russian gas pipeline flows through Ukraine would significantly affect countries dependent on these volumes. Moldova, for instance, would need to reroute its 2 Bcm supply via reverse flows of the Trans-Balkan pipeline once
38 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com