Page 75 - RusRPTJul24

policy tightening by the CBR, Renaissance Capital analysts agree.
Still, there were some signs of softer activity, with retail sales growth slowing from 11.1% y/y in March to 8.3% in April, which was weaker than expected (consensus expectation 10.0% y/y). Industrial production growth slowed down slightly from 4% y/y in March to 3.9%. This was due to a decline in extraction, while manufacturing growth accelerated to 8.3% y/y.
In Russia there are too many university graduates and too few college and college graduates; this imbalance will continue until 2035, calculated TsMAKP. The calculations were based on the average version of the demographic forecast (population 141.2mn people in 2035), GDP growth by an average of 3.5% per year and inertial trends in labor productivity. Labor migration and the war in Ukraine remained outside the context of the study. The result of the calculations is a total surplus of university graduates of 2.7mn people (220 thousand per year on average) and a shortage of college and college graduates of 3.6mn people (300 thousand per year).
4.5.2 Income dynamics
Real wages of Russians in March grew faster than inflation - by 12.9% y/y in real terms, by 21.6% in nominal terms and reached an average of 87.7 thousand rubles, Rosstat reported.
Real disposable incomes have outgrown a decade-long slump and
75 RUSSIA Country Report July 2024 www.intellinews.com