Page 22 - bne IntelliNews magazine February 2025

22 I Companies & Markets bne February 2025
First, it is entirely emission free, as it simply draws heat from the earth’s core that is caused by the residual heat from the planet’s formation, gravitational compression and radioactive decay of isotopes inside the core. By the same token, this energy is limitless.
Secondly, the energy produced is continuous and neither dependent on the weather nor the diurnal cycle. That makes geothermal the missing piece in the renewables puzzle; it can be the source of the baseload power supply that is missing from solar at night and wind when the weather is calm.
But to realise the IEA’s projected 800 GW of geothermal power governments and private investors will have to invest some
$1 trillion over the next decade. Birol forecasted that “market opportunities for next-generation geothermal energy could attract investment totalling $1 trillion by 2035 and create over a million new jobs,” adding that geothermal could not only meet growing electricity demands but also provide industrial and building heating solutions across the globe.
Birol says that this is not as big a number as it first appears and is the same that has already been invested into wind power in the last seven year and solar power in only the last three years.
“This scale-up of geothermal can easily be done and it can then play a significant role in meeting the rising electricity demand we are expecting from things like the mushrooming AI data centres and improving lives of emerging middle classes around the world,” says Birol.
However, Birol admitted that it is not clear whether geothermal will take off. “Government needs to act with funding and with slashing the bureaucracy of permitting to make it easier to start projects and bring down costs,” says Birol.
Technology breakthroughs are unlocking geothermal energy's vast potential in countries around the globe
Cost-effective market potential for next-generation geothermal by region
Source: International Energy Agency
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Drilling deep
The IEA’s research shows that if geothermal wells drilled to 2,000 metres there are few sites in the world that produce much heat, but the situation changes dramatically if wells
are drilled to 5,000 metres, when most of the countries in
the world would produce enough heat to be a viable source of energy. And at 7,000 metres virtually the whole world becomes a viable source of geothermal power and heat.
“And 5,000m deep wells are routine for oil companies,” says Birol. “There is a direct cross-over from the oil and gas business to geothermal.”
Industry professionals are more sceptical, as more technological development needs to be done.
“5,000m deep is the cutting edge of the geothermal business,” one industry participant said who wished to remain anonymous, as they are in ongoing government negotiations. “I don’t know of anyone who has dug a well that deep in Europe. Most wells are between 2,000m and 4,000m.”
The expert also pointed out that 7,000m is an extreme, as the temperatures at that depth rise to between 250C and 400C, which would melt steel pipes.
“There are alternatives like making pipes out of carbon fibre, but this is all still in the future,” the expert said.
Currently, most geothermal projects simply drill deep into the earth, pipe down water to extract the heat and bring it to the surface to use either as raw heat or run an electric generation turbine.
However, advances in oil extraction, such as horizontal drilling, offer new opportunities of more sophisticated methods. One
Geothermal could meet up to 15% of global electricity demand growth if costs for new technologies continue declining
Potential share of electricity generation growth to 2050 with cost declines