Page 11 - RusRPTJan23

Salikhov, director of the Institute of Energy and Finance. “However, this is not some kind of huge loss that will stop all exports,” he added.
After the price cap, Russia will have to sell oil to China and India at an ever greater discount. But, even if these discounts turn out to be substantial (at present it’s hard to predict their exact size), this will not be catastrophic.
The price cap is also necessary to enable European shipping companies to continue transporting oil (currently they serve 50% of the global market). However, Russia can find ways around those restrictions. According to the Financial Times, Moscow is assembling a “shadow fleet” of old tankers. And Salikhov said Russia could provide state guarantees to insure tankers and their cargoes. For India and China, it is fairly unimportant who will pay out on any insurance claim.
2.2 Gas revenues to the Russian budget halve in November
Oil and gas revenues in Russia in November, according to the Ministry of Finance, decreased by 2% y/y. But in fact, they have almost halved, because half of oil and gas revenues in November is a one-time severance tax received from Gazprom, due to the need to pay which the company refused dividends for last year. The volume of oil and gas super profits in November collapsed four times, and in December it may drop to its lowest level since the beginning of 2021.
The dynamics of oil and gas revenues of the budget looks more and more dramatic, the MMI telegram channel notes. In November, the budget received 866.4bn rubles. This is 2.1% less y/y (compared to an increase of 15.7% in October) and 32% less than the previous month, follows from the data of the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, as analysts recall, in October-December last year's profit of Gazprom (in the form of a one-time severance tax) - 415bn per month - is transferred to the budget. Without this payment, oil and gas revenues would have fallen by 48.9% y/y.
The volume of additional oil and gas revenues in November fell almost four times compared to October: 108.9bn rubles against 435.1bn. Relative to the agency's expectations, the budget received less in November 90.2bn rubles from oil and gas. In October, the budget received less than 7.5bn rubles of oil and gas revenues compared to the level of expectations.
In December, the agency predicts an influx of additional oil and gas revenues from the federal budget at the level of 176.1bn rubles - due to the fact that oil on the market is more expensive than was included in the base level. But in accordance with the rules of the Ministry of Finance, the estimate of additional oil and gas revenues for December is calculated taking into account the shortfall in the previous month of funds (that is, 176.1bn minus the shortfall in November 90.2bn). Thus, the volume of planned additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in December will amount to 85.9bn rubles. This is the lowest value since February 2021.
11 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com