Page 110 - RusRPTJan23

balanced by some disinflationary effect through subdued demand, while labour market shortage that may increase companies’ costs is also assumed to be partially offset by suppressed labour demand amid long-lasting recession. Under these restrictions, the regulator is likely to continue its monetary easing, but in a more cautious manner and taking a pause or changing its rhetoric, when inflation risks increase. In line with our baseline scenario, the interest rate will be lowered to 6.5% by YE 2023 (close to the lower bound of the CBR’s forecast), its return to the neutral level (5-5.5%) is expected no earlier than in 2025.
110 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com