Page 129 - RusRPTJan23

9.1.1b Oil sector news
Russian oil exports from the Baltic, Black Seas fell 0.5-1.5mmbpd on December 7, the first working day after the embargo came into effect, reports the Wall Street Journal, citing data from Kpler and TankerTrackers.com.
In comparison, BCS GM estimate was for a 0.5mmbpd fall from the combined effects of the EU oil embargo and price ceiling that went into effect on December 5.
Additional reports have indicated a backup of tankers trying to enter the Bosporus Straits, which have apparently been denied passage as Turkey demands insurance papers, one of the targets of the embargo.
Early data may be noisy and misleading, or may be signalling a major event. Data based on ships rather than pipelines can be lumpy, and if a large ship or two delay departure from just before midnight to just after, then data on one day will be weak and the other stronger, but nothing real may have changed.
That being said, we would take these numbers seriously, especially Kpler’s, but wait to see how the situation develops over the coming days as data becomes more reliable.
BCS assumption is a 0.5mmbpd loss in production and exports for Russia due to the crude embargo of 5 Dec, and another 0.5mmbpd lost due to the 5 Feb refined products embargo, followed by a recovery to November levels by year-end 2023 as markets adjust to the disruption.
129 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com