Page 133 - RusRPTJan23

700,000 and 1.5mn barrels a day. Rystad estimates Russia will be short of 60 to 70 tankers, and expects seaborne exports to fall about 200,000 b/d.
Total Russian volumes lost to the market may eventually reach 600,000 b/d if Moscow retaliates by cutting oil supplies running through pipelines to Europe — which are not subject to sanctions — before it has enough tankers to reroute them, Rystad said.
Two thirds of Russia’s exports to Europe or 3.9mbpd run through pipelines. Germany and Poland are the biggest recipients of piped oil, but both have promised to reduce their imports of Russian oil to zero by the end of 2022.
Urals prices fall well below the oil price cap after 5 December for Indian importers, at least for some loads using third-party tanker services. India was now the largest importer of Russian crude, accounting for 53% of November seaborne loadings. This preference is at least partly facilitated by India’s acceptance of Russian-issued insurance for tankers. $60/bbl was not achievable given the fall in Brent crude in December. According to investing.com, Urals blend crude has traded at an average of $56/bbl since 5 December, partly due to a widening of the Brent-Urals discount from c$18/bbl to c$23/bbl, and partly due to a fall in Brent itself to $79/bbl vs $85/bbl in late November.
Russia is interested in increasing oil production within the framework of current projects in Venezuela, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on the air with the Rossiya 1 TV Channel. "On our side, we are interested in the production increase, timely payments and sales of products in projects where we participate," the Deputy Prime Minister said.
Ukraine has increased the Russian oil transit tariff by 18%.Beginning January 1, 2023, Ukraine will raise the tariff for the transportation of Russian oil through the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline in the direction of Slovakia and Hungary by €2.1 to €13.6 per ton, according to data from the Russian company, Transneft. Therefore, the price will increase by 18.3%. In November, Ukrtransnafta sent a letter to the Russian operator Transneft, saying that Russia's attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has led to an electricity and fuel shortage, and will require a cost increase. The letter announced that the company would raise the tariff by €2.1. The official Transneft representative, Ihor Dyomin, confirmed the receipt of the letter and stated that the company is preparing an appeal to government structures. In April, the tariff for the transit of Russian oil through the territory of Ukraine increased from €9 to €11.5 per ton, and since the beginning of the year it has increased by 51%.
9.1.1c Gas sector news
133 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com
EU ministers agreed on gas price cap. Energy ministers of the European