Page 152 - RusRPTJan23

October, which we attribute to rising exports of both coal (in September, the EU eased restrictions on providing freight services for the marine transportation of Russian coal to third countries) and grains (on the back of the grain deal, which made it easier to export grains from Russia).
Azov and Black sea ports saw a sharp acceleration in turnover growth - from 2.7% y/y in October to 20.1% in November. This is because these ports handle most of Russia's seaborne grain exports. Russia's Far East ports also saw a significant acceleration in turnover growth - from 5.9% y/y in October to 11.3% in November. We attribute this to the ease in China's Covid restrictions. Turnover at Baltic Sea ports was down 2.3% y/y for the second month straight, while the rise in turnover at Arctic ports eased from 9.2% y/y in October to just 0.2% in November.
According to the Association of Commercial Sea Ports, the decline in transshipments of imported goods in containers through Russian ports slowed to 26% y/y in November from 28% in October. The average daily volume of transshipments was down 4.4% m/m in November.
All in all, we view the November ports data as strong. However, we note that this was due in part to one-off factors, such as the sharp increase in crude oil transshipment ahead of the price cap. We expect a slowdown in y/y turnover growth in December.
9.1.13 Other sector news
Domestic timber companies this year have reduced production volumes by between 9% and 27% due to anti-Russian sanctions. Due to the decrease in demand in the domestic market, prices have also decreased, said Yury Vorobyov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council. The industry is export-oriented: in 2021, more than 63mn cubic metres of products were produced, of which 51%, or more than 32mn cubic metres, were exported, of which 37% to China, 38% to Europe, and 25% to other countries. The consumption of the domestic market was 49%, or just over 31mn cubic metres.
According to him, the volume of timber harvesting is also decreasing - more than 13% in Russia as a whole and more than 30% in individual densely forested areas. Vorobyov added that there are already isolated cases of suspension of enterprises, transfer of employees to part-time work or dismissal. The total number of employees at the enterprises of the forest industry is about 600 thousand people, more than 35 companies are city-forming.
152 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com