Page 40 - RusRPTJan23

At the same time, October continued to surprise the market by strong figures in construction, which - despite a widespread downturn - reached 9.6% y/y growth - last seen in mid-2021. Agriculture was another factor, which supported the Russian economy, but its growth decelerated from 6.7% y/y in September to 4.6% y/y in October.
High uncertainty before embargo, but GDP’s contraction may be within 3-3.2%. In 2022, October data could be considered as a positive sign of some stabilisation. However, in December, the economy will face the toughest sanctions (an oil embargo) and thus, it will have to adapt to a new reality. If sanction effect turns out to be mild, we may expect that Russia’s GDP will be only 3-3.2% lower than in 2021, however, the key risks seem to shift to the next year.
40 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com