Page 77 - RusRPTJan23
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Estimate of changes in revenues vs oil prices. X axis: Oil output in mbpd.
Y axis: Urals in USD.
Blue box: Russia's planned revenue 2023. Green box: Today's situation.
Red box: Possibly after EU oil embargo (assumption: no Urals price change). --> Compared to the budget plan for 2023, revenue could shrink by 2.5 trillion.
The MinFin lacked creativity forecasting taxes as a constant to GDP. VAT is Russia's second most important tax after oil and gas; it depends on domestic consumption and imports. Profit taxes depend on the domestic economy and dividends, with Gazprom being the largest payer,
How is Russia preparing to square the circle and live with lower oil and gas
77 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com
