Page 81 - RusRPTJan23

RUB1.5trn ($2.5bn) of OFZ bonds (ruble-denominated debt) since October, a record amount for two months. These two channels will be the main sources of financing over the next three years,” Oxford Economics adds.
The surplus of Russia’s federal budget in January-November 2022, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 557bn rubles ($8.87bn), the Ministry of Finance said on December 12. Thus, budget revenues for the reporting period amounted to about 24.8 trillion rubles ($393.9bn), or 99% of the amount approved by the federal law on the budget for 2022-2024. Meanwhile, expenses reached 22.23 trillion rubles ($353.1bn), or 102.2% of the planned volume. Most of the revenue came from the Federal Tax Service, amounting to around 17.29 trillion rubles ($274.37bn), or 103% of the forecast figures of federal budget revenues for 2022.
Oil and gas budget revenues decreased 2% y/y in November, despite an extra tax from Gazprom, the Finance Ministry reported on December 5.
Recent data suggest that in November, oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB0.9tn, implying a 2% y/y decline (vs 16% y/y growth in October).
The breakdown of oil and gas revenues also reveals a few important trends. First, an annual contraction in oil revenues accelerated to 39% vs 21% in October, although it is more related to a high statistical base in 2021, than to monthly changes in 2022.
Second, although gas revenue rose 90% y/y in November, the growth is explained by an increased tax on Gazprom – without this extra tax, gas revenues could have shown an 82% y/y contraction.
Oil & Gas revenues should increase 15% y/y in December in order to correspond with budget projections.
November budget figures reveal some risk from Oil & Gas revenue shortfalls. In order to reach budget plans of RUB11.7tn, December’s figures should increase 15% y/y to RUB1tn.
While possible gap between Oil & Gas revenue plans and actual data is likely to remain within RUB0.1-0.2tn, we cannot rule out that non-oil-and-gas revenues can be lower than assumed in the budget. In this case, the budget projections can be under risk, and the authorities will need to find resources to plug a budget shortfall not only in 2022, but also in the M-T.
In November, Gazprom alone contributed around RUB1 trillion to the budget. That is half of Russia's total budget revenues for that month and ~20% of Russian defence spending for all of 2022. In addition to a RUB1.2 trillion (~$20bn) one-time tax, the company also pays RUB0.6 trillion in dividends, just for the first half of 2022 (~$10bn)
81 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com