Page 14 - RusRPTApr23

Commodity Insights. That compares with 10.11mn b/d in February 2022.” Analysts at S&P Global expect Russian crude and condensate supply will fall by 500,000 b/d between December 2022 and March 2023 due to logistical problems and run cuts triggered by EU import ban through February 5. Output is then expected to recover by 250,000 b/d by October unless more prohibitive price caps or new Western sanctions are rolled out.
2.2 Surge in public spending cushions Russia’s economic contraction in in 2022
An unexpected surge in public spending and private investment cushioned Russia’s economy from the widely expected sharp economic fall in 2022, government statistics release this week show. However, the economy continues to reel from continuous sanction shocks after a new embargo on oil products were put in place in February. The outlook for this year remains uncertain, but the authorities are at this point confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Fiscal Fortress is robust enough to cope with the new sanctions.
The Russian statistical authority Rosstat published the first estimate of the GDP development of the entire last year in the last week of February that showed Russia's GDP shrank by 2.1% compared to the previous year, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) reports in its weekly update.
“The better-than-anticipated
development surprised almost all parties following the Russian economy. The contraction of the economy was slightly smaller than even the authorities' expectations, e.g. the Russian central bank predicted just a week earlier that
14 RUSSIA Country Report Russia April 2023 www.intellinews.com