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materials, Rosatom Chief Executive Officer Alexey Likhachev told reporters on March 29. "It is safe to say that today Russia is among the top four composite [producers] along with the US, Japan and Western Europe and fully covers its demand," he said, adding that the country fully provides for the needs of its growing economy as well as the whole industrial landscape with composite materials. The composite sector has increased 3.5-fold as of today, while the industry has reached full import substitution on the whole range, ensuring the required quality, Likhachev said. "Shipbuilding, aircraft construction, space, ‘green energy’, special products, state defence order - all this is impossible without composites. This achievement belongs to a whole range of enterprises that are all links in the same chain, those being both state companies and private ones. And we are very grateful that a solid composite cluster has been formed in the country," he stated
9.2 Major corporate news 9.2.1 Oil & gas corporate news
● Gazprom
BCS TP on key gas producer Gazprom rises 6% to RUB190/sh and it maintains a HOLD rating. BCS forecast a DY of 12% on 2023e and 2024e, with the latter reduced on assumed arbitrage losses in Europe. We expect 12% DY in 2023-24 after we have lowered our dividend expectations due to potential losses from lawsuits in European Arbitrage Court.
European gas franchise permanently impaired, look to China. Contrasting our Russian oil industry view, we are concerned about the L-T outlook for the gas industry. BCS think Gazprom’s European export franchise will never fully recover from the current crisis, and rising exports to China will be unable to fully offset those losses, although the remaining business is still very valuable.
China partially offsets L-T European losses, potential catalyst. Deliveries via Power of Siberia-1 will rise c7bcm this year to 22bcm, and to 38bcm in 2025e, after the pipeline was extended back to the Kovykta field late last year, while the recent Far East contract will add 10bcm in the coming years. Importantly, the 50bcm Power of Siberia-2 contract looks increasingly likely to be signed after the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow, a strong catalyst. BCS raise that likelihood from 50% to 80%.
Tax pressures may ease somewhat. Although Gazprom will likely still be required to pay RUB600bn (c$8bn) of additional taxes in each of the next 3 years, the collapse of European gas prices has the silver lining of decreasing pressure from the government for even more additional taxes
BCS expect RUB20/sh dividend on 2023e financials (12% DY).
178 RUSSIA Country Report Russia April 2023 www.intellinews.com