Page 66 - bneMag Dec22

66 I Eastern Europe bne December 2022
Patchwork of peace deal proposals
There have been various attempts
to start peace talks, but they have a patchwork and controversial history. A deal was reportedly done in March, but rejected by Putin. Peace talks in Belarus in April also came tantalisingly close to a conclusion, but collapsed reportedly after former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv and told Zelenskiy the West would not back a ceasefire.
Almost immediately after the war broke out, peace talks began and ran to three rounds on the border with Belarus,
but broke up without a breakthrough. However, progress was made as Ukraine agreed to give up its Nato ambitions and also to put the issue of Crimea’s status for future talks.
Even after the face-to-face talks in Brest in Belarus ended, the teams continued to talk via video link and kept the process alive.
In September Reuters also exclusively reported that the Ukrainian-born senior presidential aide, Dmitry Kozak, had also brokered a deal that was accepted by Kyiv. Kozak recommended that Putin accept the deal, which would make the need for a large-scale war unnecessary, but Putin rejected it as his war goals had already expanded to the taking of all Ukraine.
Most controversially of all is that Zelenskiy said the day after the Bucha massacre on the outskirts of Kyiv at the start of April
that Ukraine had “no other choice” but to consider a peace deal with Russia.
Zelenskiy added that those talks would
be difficult to do, even “amid signs that Russian forces may have committed atrocities against civilians [in Bucha]”, which sparked widespread condemnation and calls for war crimes investigations.
However, a few days later UK PM Johnson arrived in Kyiv and told Zelenskiy that the West would not support any peace talks, the highly respected Ukrainska Pravda reported, Ukraine’s answer to Politico.
“According Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskiy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages: the first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with; and the second is that even if Ukraine
is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not,” Ukrainska Pravda journalists Iryna Balachuk and Roman Romaniuk reported.
Three days after Johnson left for Britain, Putin went public and said talks with Ukraine "had turned into a dead end".
These reports have been hotly contested by Ukraine’s supporters, who say Zelenskiy could never had sold a peace deal to Ukrainian voters, who overwhelmingly
support continuing the struggle against Ukraine regardless of the cost.
Moreover, the Ukrainska Pravda journalists have since walked back their comments, saying that it was not clear that Johnson had scuppered a deal. However, US foreign policy advisor Fiona Hill added credence to the original report in an article she wrote for Foreign Affairs saying that a deal was indeed agreed, and suggested the deal was only dropped after Johnson’s visit to Kyiv.
“Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed
on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,” wrote Fiona Hill and Angela Stent in Foreign Affairs. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek Nato membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”
In this context the latest calls by the
US for Zelenskiy to soften his hard line on no talks with Putin seems to be yet another flip-flop on trying to end the war using diplomatic means and an acknowledgement that fatigue with the conflict amongst the Western coalition is growing. However, almost no respectable observer of the war believes that a peace deal is close and the vast majority expect the war to continue all winter, or longer.”
Huge relief after Black Sea grain deal
extended for 120 days
Dominic Culverwell in London
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended for another 120 days following a tense few weeks, Interfax Ukraine reported on November 17.
Ukraine, Russia and Turkey all signed the deal in Istanbul, which will be effective from November 19. There had been some concerns that Russia would
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refuse to extend the initiative after suspending the agreement last month before rejoining in November.
"I welcome the agreement by all
parties to continue the Black Sea
Grain Initiative to facilitate the safe navigation of export of grain, foodstuffs and fertilisers from Ukraine," said UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a statement on the UN website.
The UN-backed deal was first signed
on July 22 with an initial term of 120 days. It allowed the export of Ukrainian grain from three ports, easing the global food crisis which had been escalated
by Russia’s Black Sea blockade. Since