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“These estimates are based on the previous data sets; if/when Rosstat updates it statistics to include 2017 as the base year, as promised, I will have to revise my estimates as well,” Tikhomirov added.
4.2 Inflation
Russia’s inflation in 2019 will be higher than the official forecast of the Economic Development Ministry at 4.3%, but will remain below 5%, Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin said in February.
The Ministry’s forecast stated that inflation in Russia in 2019 will be below 5%, while maintaining the current ruble exchange rate.
Earlier the Ministry said that inflation in Russia was expected to reach 0.5- 0.6% in monthly terms in February 2019, and to accelerate to 5.2-5.4% in annual terms. The Ministry suggested that inflation would slow down to below 5% by the end of 2019 if the ruble’s exchange rate remains stable.
In January 2019, inflation amounted to 1% in monthly terms, below the ministry’s projections, while in annual terms it reached 5%, according to the note.
In 2018, inflation in Russia accelerated to 4.3% against 3.2% projected by the ministry in August. According to its official outlook, inflation is expected to total 4.3% by the end of 2019.
36 RUSSIA Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com