Page 46 - RusRPTMar19

housing loans.
In January 2019, retail sales volume growth was dragged down by a general increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate from 18% to 20%. January retail sales volumes rose by 1.6% y/y, while growth in sales of non-food goods slowed sharply to just 1.2%. The VAT rate on food was unchanged, however, and growth in food sales picked up slightly last month.
Retail sales growth slowed to 1.6% y/y in January from 2.6% in 2018. This was tied in with nominal wage growth easing to 5.2% y/y in January from 7.3% in December, which was attributable to inflation climbing to 5% from 4.3% over the period. As a result, real wage growth sank to 0.2% from 2.9%.
Sberbank expects real retail sales growth of 1.5-2.0% this year, which should correspond with consumption growth of around 1.5%.
5.0 External Sector & Trade 5.1 External sector overview
Russian customs reports that in 2018 the country’s goods trade surplus climbed to $212bn, or roughly 12% of GDP. Russia is now running a triple surplus again for the first time in years: trade, current account and federal budget. Both the budget and the current account surpluses are at record levels.
Russian goods exports rose by 26% from previous year. This reflects changes in both quantities and prices. Some of these may prove to be temporary. Energy prices are a major driver of fluctuations in Russia’s case, Bank of
46 RUSSIA Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com