Page 41 - bne Magazine August 2022

bne August 2022 Special Report I 41
leading nuclear power producer before 2030.
Advanced economies collectively see a 10% increase in nuclear,
as retirements are offset by new plants, mainly in the US, France, the United Kingdom and Canada.
Annual global investment in nuclear power rises is forecast to rise from $30bn during the 2010s to over $100bn by 2030, and will remain above $80bn to 2050.
The report highlighted that the sector faces rising costs, and that these must be cut in order for it to remain competitive with renewables.
This means completing nuclear projects in advanced economies at around $5,000 per kW by 2030, compared with the reported capital costs of around $9,000 per kW (excluding financing costs) for first-of-a kind projects.
There are some proven methods to reduce costs, including finalising designs before starting construction, sticking with the same design for subsequent units, and building multiple units at the same site. Stable regulatory frameworks throughout construction would also help avoid delays.
One way forward would be to develop small modular reactors (SMRs). In
the IES net-zero emissions scenario (NZE), half of the emissions reductions by 2050 come from technologies, including small modular reactors,
that are not yet commercially viable.
SMRs, generally defined as advanced nuclear reactors with a capacity of less than 300 MW, have strong political and institutional support, with substantial grants in the US, and increased support in Canada, the UK and France. This support makes it possible to attract private investors, bringing new players and new supply chains to the nuclear industry.
The IEA recommended that in order to meet these targets, governments must extend the lifetimes of power plants, and make electricity markets value dispatchable low-emissions capacity.
Governments must also create financing frameworks to support new reactors and promote efficient and effective safety regulation.
Finally, they must implement solutions for nuclear waste disposal and involve citizens in prioritising approval and construction of high- level waste disposal facilities in countries that do not yet have them.
This is a key issue for nuclear power, and the source of much opposition to the sector. The problem of waste is also the main reason why many in the green movements do not view nuclear power as a green technology and do not see
it as part of the energy transition.
Central Europe remains highly exposed to Russian uranium
Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh
Europe’s nuclear power sector is starting to worry about its fuel stocks as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is calling
into question the security of uranium supplies and processing services provided by Russia.
The issue has the potential to turn into a fuel crisis with parallels to
the current gas crisis, with countries now needing to look for alternatives and the Kremlin using both raw uranium 235 and finished fuel to apply political and economic pressure.
Fuel cycle
Russia may only supply 6% of the global raw uranium market, but
it controls 40% of the conversion market – where uranium oxide,
or yellowcake, is converted into uranium hexafluoride – and 46% of the enrichment market, where the U-235 content in raised to 3-5%, allowing nuclear fuel to be formed.
Also, Russia is prominent is many
stages of the global nuclear fuel cycle through various state-owned companies grouped under the Rosatom umbrella.
What this means is that Russia has the capability in several segments of the nuclear value chain to make a particular service or material scarce or difficult to source. This would make many reactors, especially in Central and Eastern Europe but also in Western Europe and the US, vulnerable to supply problems that could take reactors offline.
The Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University said in a recent paper that countries such as Finland, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Ukraine have Russian reactors in operation or
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