Page 62 - bne Magazine August 2022

62 I Eastern Europe bne August 2022
members retain their anonymity. Yulia Shemetovets is the only member who has publicly released her identity.
The group all centres around their desire for an independent Belarus, politically severed from Russia, which BCP condemns as an “imperialist state”.
“Putin and his cronies don’t consider Belarusians as a nation and won’t let Belarus outside of the Russian sphere of interest,” Shemetovets explains. “We still firmly believe that Belarusians have to make a civilisation choice and come back to the European family.” This line echoes Putin’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine, emphasising
just how intertwined the Belarusian and Ukrainian fight is.
“Without a free Ukraine, there is no chance for a free independent Belarus. That’s why the BCP are now doing everything possible to help Ukrainians,” she added.
Speaking on the future of Belarus and its possible direct involvement in the war, Shemetovets believes that the decision will be a costly and unpopular one for Lukashenko.
“Belarusians don’t support the involvement of Belarusian soldiers in this war, even Lukashenko’s supporters,”
she claimed. “The level of preparedness of Belarusian soldiers is very low -
they don’t have proper experience, knowledge, or motivation. There is a high risk they either refuse to follow the command or turn around and go against the regime and Lukashenko understands that.” Nevertheless, the Cyber Partisans will expect the unexpected and are prepared to respond should Belarusian troops be deployed.
“BCP are already helping with information on how to reach out to Belarusian soldiers and their family (...) to discourage military people from participating in this meaningless war,” Shemetovets stated.
Russian business is turning to new markets –
Europe must do the same
Theo Normanton
The pattern of onshoring, nearshoring and import substitution established during the pandemic accelerated dramatically after Russia sent troops into Ukraine. Six EU sanctions packages followed, and over 200 foreign companies exited the Russian market.
But the EU is not the only destination for Russian goods and services. The Global South accounts for 80% of the world's population and just over half of global GDP. Russia is an established player there, and Russian companies have proved quick on the draw in re-directing their Europe-bound trade to the South.
Alexey Miller, CEO of state-owned
gas giant Gazprom, told executives
and politicians at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that the company had increased its gas exports to China by almost 70% in the first five months of 2022 when compared with the same period the previous year.
China has accounted for 32% of the growth in world demand for natural
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gas from 2011-2021, according to RIA Novosti, so is a key strategic market for gas providers. With Chinese gas demand growing by an average 22bn cubic metres a year for the past five years, Russia’s pivot to China is only set to accelerate.
Meanwhile, China and India have overtaken Germany as the biggest buyers of Russian crude oil. Russia exported a record 8.42mn tonnes of discounted crude oil to China in May – almost 2mn barrels per day (bpd), which is an increase of 28% relative to April. Russia said last month it expects up to RUB1 trillion ($14.4bn) in additional
oil and gas revenues in 2022. India and China between them are purchasing enough Russian oil to compensate for the loss in western custom.
New markets
The phenomenon is not limited to energy giants. Russian companies across the board have been redirecting trade flows in response to dwindling import demand in Europe.
China is one of the most significant new markets for Russian business. Russian
trade with its southeastern neighbour grew by 26% from January to April, exceeding $50bn per year, according to data published by Chinese customs. China and Russia hope to grow that figure further – to a whopping $200bn per year by the end of 2024.
Russia’s metallurgical companies turned to China after Europe banned imports of Russian steel slab. Fastmarkets reports that Russia exported 1.3mn tonnes of steel slab to European countries in 2020. With this market gone, steel companies Severstal, NLMK and Evraz re-directed exports to emerging markets. The 400,000 tonnes of semi-finished steel products sent to China by the three companies in the second half of April exceeded the amount exported to China in the whole of 2021 by more than five times.
By selling their products at a significant discount relative to the other regional steel producers (such as Malaysia and Indonesia), the Russian companies hope to establish a foothold in the Chinese market and cultivate relationships with new clients.