Page 20 - bne IntelliNews SE Outlook Regions 2024

1.9 Politics - Romania
Multiple elections lie ahead in 2024. However, none of the upcoming votes are expected to inspire major excitement among voters.
The election for the European Parliament is scheduled for June 9 and the ruling coalition agreed to hold local elections on September 29. The calendar for parliamentary and presidential elections has not been set yet. The current term for Romanian lawmaker expires on December 6, therefore the elections should be held beforehand.
Since President Klaus Iohannis forged the ruling coalition by pairing the rival Social Democrat and Liberal parties, the former has consolidated its senior position and it will perhaps play the leading role in negotiating the majority after the 2024 general elections.
However, future public conduct can hardly be anticipated – notably, it is the Social Democrats’ opportunistic fiscal and budgetary policies that lack predictability and consistency. The budget for the year 2025, after the elections, can hardly be imagined without a new fiscal corrective package (estimated by the IMF at 2% of GDP in supplementary revenues).
Separately, the implementation of the Resilience Facility is problematic as it includes ambitious reforms in public administration, and failure to get the attached financing would put into question the main growth driver for the country’s economy.
How much the Social Democrats (PSD) will increase their seats in parliament and how much ground the far-right AUR party will gain are the main variables of the parliamentary elections. As regards the presidential ballot, it seems increasingly likely that PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu will be the frontrunner – unless some more appropriate candidate shows up – despite visible efforts by Mircea Geoana (ex-PSD presidential candidate, currently Nato deputy secretary general) to promote himself as a prospective candidate. A viable option in terms of capacity, Geoana is not backed by the centre-right opposition (as an ex-PSD candidate) and was openly rejected by his former party the PSD.
Under the baseline scenario, the Social Democrats will remain the senior (or sole) ruling partner – although in principle an implosion of the National Liberal Party (PNL) might create factions and consolidate a potential centre-right alliance. At this moment the centre-right is very fragmented and lacks consistency.
20 SE Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com