Page 38 - bne IntelliNews SE Outlook Regions 2024

The government of Moldova recently updated its economic projection, estimating 2% growth for 2023 and much more significant advances in the coming years: 3.5% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025. Such rates are still insufficient to support visible convergence in terms of incomes or per capita GDP with the European states, though.
The executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on December 7 endorsed a positive assessment of the Moldovan authorities' policies and drafted a rather positive forecast for the country’s economy: 2% GDP growth in 2023, followed by a gradual acceleration to 3.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.
After the 0.4% y/y contraction in January-September and the low grain prices, both independent and official projections for 2023 look rather optimistic even if the fiscal deficit projection (5.6% of GDP) envisaging significant public demand in the second part of the year may explain part of the discrepancy.
Moldova’s seasonally-adjusted GDP edged down by 0.8% quarter on quarter in Q3, after the 0.6% q/q decline in Q2. Base effects pushed up the y/y growth to 2.6% in Q3, which sweetened the ytd performance from -2.3% y/y in January-June to -0.8% y/y in January-September. The base effects moderated in Q4 and a 0% GDP dynamics for 2023 would rather be more plausible.
The growth drivers remain fragile for 2024-2025, as the base effects in agriculture vanish and the energy prices (one of the reasons that hindered growth in 2022-2023) will remain permanently around levels prevailing at this moment.
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