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year earlier. For comparison, in 2022 exports have risen.
The Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) has projected that Bosnia’s foreign trade deficit will vary between 4.7% and 7.8% in 2024-2026, due to expected rise of imports and exports.
The World Bank has projected that exports will improve in 2024 and 2025 along with imports, which would increase the country’s current account deficit from 4.7% of GDP in 2023 to 5.1% by 2025.
The European Commission said that in the first half of 2023 inflows of primary and secondary transfers were higher than in the first half of 2022, which has resulted in a slight reduction of the current account deficit to 4.7% of GDP, compared to 4.9% a year before.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has set Bosnia’s current account deficit at 4.3% of GDP in 2023. It is seen at 3.8% of GDP in 2024 and at 3.6% of GDP in 2028.
The DEP expects the current account deficit to vary between 2% of GDP and 2.95 of GDP in 2024-2026 from an estimated 3.7% in 2023.
The net FDI is expected to reach between 8% of GDP and 9.3% of GDP in 2023-2026.
3.3 External Environment - Bulgaria
The IMF has projected that Bulgaria will have a slight surplus in 2024, at 0.1% of GDP, while in 2023 it would have a balanced current account. In 2025, the country’s current account surplus should swing to a deficit of 0.3% of GDP.
The World Bank expects that Bulgaria’s current account will post a surplus in 2023-2025 thanks to the expected downward adjustment of import prices of key raw materials and the increase of net services export.
According to the latest available central bank data, Bulgaria’s current account posted a surplus of €114.4mn (0.1% of GDP) in the first nine months of 2023, compared with a deficit of €294.2mn reported a year earlier.
At the same time, Bulgaria’s foreign trade deficit fell 39.4% y/y in the first ten months of 2023 to BGN7.4bn as trade has been affected by the Russian war in Ukraine and the economic crisis it caused.
3.4 External Environment - Croatia
Croatia’s current account is forecasted to post a deficit of 0.4% of GDP in 2024 compared to an estimated deficit of 0.2% of GDP in 2023, according to the IMF.
The country recorded a deficit of €775mn on its current account in the
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