Page 51 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine November 2024

bne November 2024
Opinion 51
Indeed, partnership in defence paved the way for Israel's growing footprint in the Balkan region. In this regard, Serbia is not the only option for Israel as in June 2024, Albanian Defence Minister Niko Peleshi landed in Israel to meet his counterpart Yoav Gallant and signed a memorandum of understanding to promote joint security and defence infra- structure. Unlike Serbia, Albania is not a weapon exporter, but it is keen on importing Israeli-made weaponry given Tirana’s tense relations with Iran over its hosting of Moja- hedin-e Khalq (MEK), an anti-Iranian regime organisation,
on its soil. As a result, in October 2022, Iran conducted an unprecedented cyber attack against Albania, which exposed the country’s vulnerability, pushing Tirana toward a deeper partnership with Israel, particularly in the cybersecurity field. On the other hand, in 2024, Albania became Israel's third- largest fuel oil supplier after Russia and Brazil, shipping over 70,000 tonnes.
In addition to defence/military ties, Israel likely views the Balkan region as another platform for intelligence purposes against its opponents in the region, particularly Iran and Turkey. The relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv worsened dramatically following the latter's war in the Gaza Strip and resulted in halting diplomatic ties, as well as all trade opera- tions. Given Turkey's cordial relations with Hamas and Arab countries, Israeli intelligence is particularly keen to gather as much data as it can.
As such, the Balkan region, with its close economic and historical ties with Turkey, could become a safe haven for
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the Israeli intelligence network against Turkey and Iran. Therefore, the arrest of a Kosovan citizen in Turkey by Turk- ish counterintelligence should come as a little surprise. The suspect was reportedly believed to have been transferring money to operatives of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, including sending money to informants “who were film-
ing with drones, conducting psychological warfare against Palestinian politicians and collecting information about the situation in Syria”, according to Turkish intelligence sources.
Growing international condemnation makes Israel's
current situation more complex. Nevertheless, Israel seems determined to boost its legitimacy amid the extended war
by building new partnerships with the Balkan states. In exchange, Serbia and Albania likely seek to gain the support of the powerful Israeli lobby organisations based in Washing- ton to boost their influence in the White House.
The pragmatic foreign policy agenda amid the devastating war is the primary stimulus behind Israel's outreach to the Balkan region, in which it had only previously had a periph- eral presence.
Fuad Shahbazov is a policy analyst covering regional security issues in the South Caucasus. He was a research fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies and previously a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications, both in Azerbaijan. He was also a visiting scholar at the Daniel Morgan School of National Security in Washington, DC. He tweets at @fuadshahbazov.
Drawing Article 5 lines for Ukraine to end the war Ben Aris in Berlin
Everyone is fed up with the war in Ukraine, and starting to finally admit is unwinnable. But that has been clear for more than a year now, since the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 summer offensive.
It’s looking increasingly likely that ceasefire talks could happen soon, but what would that look like? Firstly, it’s a given that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will have to give up some land, and has already floated the idea of a referendum to get a mandate from the people for that.
But there is also increasing talk about a “West German” solution, where after unification Nato membership covered the western half of the country, but not the eastern. A similar deal could be in store of Ukraine: where the western half of the country is pulled into the Western brotherhood, but the eastern half remains in Russian hands, and disputed.
That was followed by mounting Ukraine fatigue coupled with the shocking Western reluctance to invest into its arms production industry while Putin put Russia on a war footing. Then there was the failed Swiss peace summit held on June 16-17 and most recently, Zelenskiy's failed victory plan trip to New York, where he got none of the main things he asked for.
Hope is not entirely dead, as there is a Ramstein format meeting of Nato members later this month, but it is highly unlikely he will be given what he wants most there – lots of missiles and permission to hit targets inside Russia. Indeed, as our columnist Leonid Ragozin pointed out, the whole misnamed “victory” plan could easily be seen as a Plan B posturing to prepare the ground for starting ceasefire talks as it was clear from the start that US President Joe Biden would never sign off on Zelenskiy's shopping list (despite signing off on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s similar list
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