Page 34 - bne_May magazine 2023_20230503 BRICS

34 I Cover story bne May 2023
Development Bank (aka the BRICS Bank), which will also be discussed at the confab.
EMs confabs
A large expansion of the BRICS bloc would increase the group’s sway on the international stage. India was a rotating member of the UN Security Council shortly after the war in Ukraine started and, together with China, abstained from the vote to condemn Moscow for the invasion. However, the EMs would like to see the Security Council expanded
to include new EM members. Currently there are three European countries (France, the UK and Russia) along with China and the US on the council, but none from either Africa or Latin America.
Russia has just taken over the chairmanship of the Security Council, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov immediately called for the body to expand to include representation
of Asian, African and Latin American countries.
"The evident under-representation [in the UN Security Council] of Asian, African and Latin American countries should certainly be fixed," he said at a dramatic news conference last week to sum up the results of Russia’s first session as chairman.
"The multi-polar world is objectively being shaped. I don’t know what the final result and configuration will be," he added.
The BRICS organisation is being chaired by South Africa this year but there
will be a G20 summit next year, where Russia will be the chair, that is likely
to produce a buzz of activity similar
to that which this BRICS summit has done. This year’s G20 summit was in Indonesia, which is another Russia ally. Putin was due to attend that event too, but pulled out at the last minute.
Russia will also host the second Russia- Africa summit in July in St Petersburg, where the majority of Africa’s 54 heads of state are expected to attend. The
US has already been actively lobbying African governments not to attend the
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Russian event, and how many skip it will be a litmus test of the Kremlin’s support in Africa.
Russia also took over the chairmanship of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that was set up to co-ordinate between several of the CIS countries. However,
IMF global growth outlook
as bne IntelliNews reported, since the war in Ukraine started the Kremlin is in the process of re-tasking the EAEU to also take in new members in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. That tallies with China’s plans, for which Eurasia is also a vital region for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
2022
2023
2024
World Output 3.4 2.8 3
Advanced Economies 2.7 1.3 1.4
United States 2.1 1.6 1.1
Euro Area 3.5 0.8 1.4
Germany 1.8 -0.1 1.1
France 2.6 0.7 1.3
Italy 3.7 0.7 0.8
Spain 5.5 1.5 2
Japan 1.1 1.3 1
United Kingdom 4 -0.3 1
Canada 3.4 1.5 1.5
Other Advanced Economies 2.6 1.8 2.2
EM Economies 4 3.9 4.2
EM Asia 4.4 5.3 5.1
China 3 5.2 4.5
India 6.8 5.9 6.3
EM Europe 0.8 1.2 2.5
Russia -2.1 0.7 1.3
LatAm 4 1.6 2.2
Brazil 2.9 0.9 1.5
Mexico 3.1 1.8 1.6
Middle East and Central Asia 5.3 2.9 3.5
Saudi Arabia 8.7 3.1 3.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.9 3.6 4.2
Nigeria 3.3 3.2 3
South Africa 2 0.1 1.8
EM and Middle-Income Economies 3.9 3.9 4
Low-Income Developing Countries 5 4.7 5.4
Source: IMF WEO April 2023